College Hoops Top 50

Each of the past couple of years, big expectations have gone largely unrealized in College Station. To be sure, head coach Buzz Williams has had solid squads capable of beating some of the best teams out there. They’ve been able to make a pair of trips to the NCAA Tournament. Still, the potential that the Aggies have flashed has not added up to a resounding breakthrough in March. 

Is that about to change, though? 

Texas A&M is one of a few teams at the high major level that’s looking strong and ready to make a statement come tourney time. Given the unique circumstances surrounding each group, though, questions will follow them into March. We’re taking a look at just what makes these contenders tick, and figuring out why they may or may not be poised for great things to come. 

Texas A&M’s hot start has featured some legit highlight wins. The Aggies have already taken down Ohio State, Creighton, Oregon and Purdue. Their most recent dub came at Oklahoma, and featured Zhuric Phelps’s double-ankle-breaking dagger three in the closing moments. It was also the latest time that some in the college basketball world became Jesse from Breaking Bad, shouting ‘He can’t keep getting away with it!’

The main issue for A&M is fairly obvious, both because you can see it pretty much every time they play, and because it’s been an issue for years now. To put it plainly, the Aggies don’t generally shoot the ball well. Two years ago, A&M was 262nd and 269th nationally in FG% and 3FG%, respectively. Last year, those figures plummeted to 346th and 345th. So far this year, their shooting rates come in at 260th & 297th. That, even with big men Pharrel Payne and Henry Coleman III (who have combined to make 77 of their 87 FG’s within arm’s reach of the rim) each shooting 60%+ from the floor. And yet, Texas A&M is 13-2 and ranked in the top 15 of just about every poll in the country. 

How can a team full of such consistent brick-layers be so good?

Well, it’s because Williams has engineered an offense that’s nearly impervious to bad shooting nights. Williams has gathered and coached up guys who, as a unit, rebound the ball like few outfits have in recent years. They also guard people closely and turn their opponents over at a terrific rate, and the Aggies make a great living at the charity stripe. Being that clangs are the norm for this team, A&M has become a pack of wolves in the halfcourt. They chase every shot they put up with ferocious abandon, and they aggressively attack the rim off the bounce as well. As a result, the Aggies have established themselves as the best offensive rebounding team in the nation. After finishing fifth in the country in offensive rebounding rate two years ago, Texas A&M was first last year and they’re tops again right now – and leading the field by 2.5 percentage points. 

Though they’re not getting to the free throw line quite as absurdly this year as the past two campaigns, the Aggies are still 17th in the country in attempts per game and 32nd in makes per contest. The charity stripe is also a place where A&M’s main issue – shooting – begins to show up, though. Since last fall, the Aggies have been well below 200th in the country in free throw percentage. Can they either get to the line more often or actually make some more shots? They’ll have to do one or the other in order to have a good enough offense to make it through SEC play with the lofty rankings they’re sitting on now. 

An issue that’s newly surfaced is a knee injury to star point guard Wade Taylor IV. He’s the team’s leading scorer each of the past two years and A&M’s most potent threat again this season. While the Aggies were able to run away from Texas with Taylor missing key chunks of the action and win at Oklahoma without him, A&M will need its best player on the floor for the tough tests which are to come. Speaking of, Texas A&M’s next two contests are against Alabama and at Kentucky. The schedule ahead is going to be extremely tough. The Aggies know who they are and have made their deficiencies into a strength, and they seem prepared for the challenge. There will be all sorts of opportunities for Q1 wins throughout SEC play, which means that if A&M can keep on getting away with it, they’ll have the résumé of a bullet-proof top 4 seed by mid-March. Once there, the Aggies should be able to really make some noise. If, that is, they make enough shots. 

Oregon 

There’s a lot to like about this year’s Ducks. They’ve got a deep, rising crew of young veterans who have largely played together for a couple of years now. There are a bunch of different guys who can shoot the ball and create opportunities for others. If you ask the folks in Eugene who have seen his struggles, the best thing going is that center Nathan Bittle is finally healthy, and he’s seizing the opportunity to step out as this team’s star. Champions of the inaugural Players Era Festival at the end of November, Oregon is working one of the country’s better résumés. They’ve already got five Quad-1 wins in the NET rankings. There…is also a 32-point home loss to Illinois on their season record. 

Head coach Dana Altman’s teams have journeyed to the Sweet Sixteen or better over the past 11 years. With their experiences in Las Vegas to lean on, is this Oregon team going to have the star power to make another deep run in the Big Dance? 

While Bittle has become a go-to-guy up front, a couple of Oregon’s best young players have not yet joined him in reaching a new level. Point guard Jackson Shelstad was a popular name this summer when discussing the country’s premiere breakout candidates. His classmate – superfreak forward Kwame Evans, Jr – was envisioned as an all-around defensive menace poised to evolve as a scorer, and everybody thought that transfer wing TJ Bamba would give the Ducks a proven star scorer. None of those players has been a disappointment thus far, but each has yet to really break through as someone other than who they’ve been in the past. 

The Ducks’ strength has been their variety of solid players. The ensemble cast surrounding Bittle, Bamba, Evans and Shelstad is a good one, and guys have taken turns doing winning things. In fact, the Ducks have already beaten Texas A&M. Oregon made 12 straight shots against the Aggies’ strong defense in the second half of that one, and the Ducks locked down late, scoring the final 11 points over the final 2:05 of the game. In their next tilt, against San Diego State, Oregon got three straight triples from Bamba, forward Brandon Angel, and guard Keeshawn Barthélémy to put the Aztecs away down the stretch. Bittle may have thrown down the game-winning dunk against Alabama, but Barthélémy got the Ducks into position for the dub with 22 points on 4/5 from downtown. Following the Illinois debacle, Evans combined with Barthélémy to score 24 vital points in a win over Maryland. 

It’s possible that Shelstad is getting on a heater; he’s got 24 and 23 points in the Ducks’ last two contests, and has made nine of 11 triples in those games. Outside shooting will be key towards Oregon’s ultimate chances. They’re a streaky flock, but when a couple of guys get hot at the same time, the Ducks can put up points in a hurry. Even more vital will be their work on the glass; Oregon sits 148th in the country in offensive rebounding rate and just 212th on the defensive boards. Given their spurt-ability and the way they came together for three wins over good teams in just a few days at the Players Era Festival,  Oregon may in fact need for real as a Final Four threat. Will it be as a dark horse or as one of the gentry of their new league? Big Ten play will decide Oregon’s standing, but the Ducks have already proven that they’re dangerous. 

West Virginia 

The Mountaineers were still adding guys at the end of August. Their late signings included a brand-new senior out of Canada and a freshman who didn’t have any other official offers. There’s a football player moonlighting on the team. Entering this season with a new coach and a rather slapped-together roster, not much was expected of WVU in the first season of the Darian DeVries era. Then, two of the team’s top three scorers got hurt. 

So, of course, West Virginia is ranked #21 in this week’s AP Poll. Wait, what?

The outlook has quickly become bright again in Morgantown, as DeVries is doing one of the best coaching jobs in America this winter. After showing his quality at Drake over the past six years, DeVries is wasting no time proving himself a worthy Big 12 boss. Look no further than the Mountaineers’s neutral-site victory over Gonzaga and their win at Kansas to begin the new year. WVU isn’t just a competitive feel-good story: they’ve already beaten some of the country’s best teams. Still, given their profile as an overachiever that will need all hands on deck to earn a spot in the Big Dance and advance. 

Without the services of Tucker DeVries – Darian’s son and a two-time Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year – WVU has had to make do without one of its two best players. Fortunately for the Mountaineers, Javon Small has been simply sublime. A transfer from Oklahoma State, Small has been the heartbeat of WVU this season, leading the Big 12 in both minutes and points per game. He’s playing an impressively versatile role, too. Not only is Small the team’s best scorer, he’s the primary playmaker, its second-leading rebounder, and he’s pilfered 26 steals through 14 games – good for seventh in the Big 12. 

When Tucker DeVries has been on the floor, he’s been a fair stat-sheet stuffer in his own right. Already a proven scorer – he’s just 14 points away from 2,000 through 112 career games – Tucker DeVries is also a very savvy and unselfish player who can take over the game on occasion. It’s possible that the evolution of Amani Hansberry as an inside-out scorer and steady post defender has been just we important, and Sencire Harris is looking like one of the Big 12’s best individual defenders. 

It’s their defense, more than anything, that the Mountaineers have been able to rely upon each game this year. More than anything else, their ability to get stops and make impact plays on the defensive end. Currently, WVU ranks top ten nationally in blocked shots, opponent 3FG% and overall opponent shooting efficiency; and they’re holding their foes to just 63.4 points per game – 16th in all the land. West Virginia hasn’t been great on the glass, so their efficient and proactive approach on defense has been that much more vital. The expected return of Tucker DeVries in the near future should help, but the team needs every effort that Hansberry and fifth-year pivot Eduardo Andre can provide, as well. 

With numbers like that to hang their hat on, West Virginia can contend in the Big 12 and beyond, but they’re going to need all of their ammunition in order to make even more noise in March. Freshman Jonathan Powell and power wing Toby Okani are solid secondary pieces, but WVU needs Small and Tucker DeVries -its pair of aces –  to be fully operational for postseason play. They’ve already shown that they can punch above their weight class while shorthanded. If they get fully healthy, there should be no qualifiers on West Virginia’s potential to advance in March. 

Georgetown & Villanova

How about a Big East double-dip? While teams like Texas A&M and Oregon are trying to prove that they’re genuine threats to play on the final weekend of the NCAA Tournament, the Hoyas and Wildcats are trying to reassert themselves as being worthy of an invite to the Dance. Each proud program has had a rough couple of years, but things have been looking better lately. Are their turnarounds for real? Just a few short years ago, Nova was a regular threat to win a natty. Following the departure of legendary head coach Jay Wtight, though, the Wildcats fell hard. After rapidly becoming the butt of jokes and earning the anger of fans under Kyle Neptune, Wright’s successor, Villanova entered this season at a crossroads. And promptly started 3-4.

Over the past month, though, the Wildcats have gotten on a roll. Not only have they won eight of their past nine contests, they’ve knocked off Creighton, Cincinnati, and most recently, two-time defending national champs UConn. Is it all a mirage, or has Villanova found its stride once more?

One thing that’s very real about Nova is Eric Dixon, and he’s spectacular. He leads the nation in scoring average – by nearly three points per game – and has firmly established himself as one of the Big East’s best players in years. He’s only failed to score 20+ once this season (he had 16 in a 24-point win over Rider), and Dixon has posted games with 31, 33, and 38 points so far. In addition, Dixon has become one of America’s best outside shooters – his 50 made three’s and 47.2% rate from downtown both lead the Big East and rank top 20 in the country. 

With such a fantastic player as Dixon to lean on, Villanova’s lineup has come together. Point guard Jhamir Brickus has quickly established a smooth rapport with Dixon, ranking 27th nationally with 5.8 assists per game. Meanwhile, Wooga Poplar, another Philly-area kid, is a proven scorer and marksman in his own right who’s done a nice job of pulling at least a bit of defensive attention away from Dixon. Fourth-year Wildcat Jordan Longino, who had drawn some fan frustration by not breaking out in either of the past two seasons, is also enjoying a career year. Roll it all together and Villanova has a rather fearsome attack, and the numbers back that up. The Wildcats rank among three nation’s ten best in 3FG% and overall shooting efficiency. They’ve played solid defense lately, too, and currently own a scoring margin of +12.4. 

Meanwhile, a cast of new faces is turning Georgetown into a tough matchup again. The Hoyas have been down bad for most of the past decade; over their past three campaigns coming into this year, Georgetown had won just 22 games. The Hoyas are off to a 12-3 start this winter, though, in the strength of a standout quartet that’s hungry to prove something. 

Jayden Epps (who arrived from Illinois last year) and newcomers Malik Mack (Harvard), Micah Peavy (TCU), and freshman Thomas Sorber, have emerged as a strong core for second-year head coach Ed Cooley. Epps is a dangerous scorer, Mack runs an exciting point, while Sorber is the Big East’s leading rebounder and Georgetown’s leading scorer despite his rookie status. The most experienced of the bunch, Peavy has emerged as both a solid scorer and triple-double threat; in fact he posted 20 points, eight boards, eight assists, and seven steals against Creighton, so that may be selling him a bit short. 

With plenty of question marks coming into this year, the Hoyas didn’t schedule a particularly tough non-conference slate, and they rose to 11-2 largely by beating the Lehighs and Albany’s of Division I. To prove that they’re for real, Georgetown will need to show out against top competition. Wins over Seton Hall, Xavier, and Creighton to start league play helped, but even though the Hoyas gave top-ten Marquette a battle until the final minutes, they’ve yet to earn a statement win. 

Coming into their contest with the Golden Eagles, Cooley’s team had only faced three Quad-1 opponents on the year. There will be a prime opportunity with UConn coming to town on Saturday. If Georgetown can do what Villanova has already accomplished, it will be a big step back into the spotlight. Whether the Wildcats or Hoyas are ready to rejoin the Big Dance this March remains to be seen, but there’s plenty of excitement surrounding their recent play, and the talent is on hand to get things done.