Last Year: 23-11; Sixth (12-8) in the Atlantic Coast Conference; lost in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament
Head Coach: Kevin Keatts (Seventh Year; 113-79 at NC State with two NCAA Tournament Appearances)
Projected Starting Lineup
| G DJ Horne – 6’2″, 180 – Senior (5th) |
| G Casey Morsell – 6’3″, 200 – Senior (5th) |
| G Jayden Taylor – 6’4″, 195 – Junior |
| W MJ Rice – 6’5″, 215 – Sophomore |
| F/C DJ Burns – 6’9″, 275 – Senior (5th) |
Projected Starters’ 2022-23 Stats
DJ Horne: 12.5 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 2.4 apg, 1.1 spg – 35.5% 3FG @ Arizona State
Casey Morsell: 11.8 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 0.9 apg, 1.1 spg – 41.1% 3FG
Jayden Taylor: 12.9 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.3 apg, 1.3 spg – 40.8% FG @ Butler
MJ Rice: 2.2 ppg, 1.0 rpg, 0.2 apg, 0.3 spg – 40.8% FG @ Kansas
DJ Burns: 12.5 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 1.5 apg, 0.9 bpg – 56.1% FG
Experienced Reserves
| G Kam Woods – 6’2″, 185 – Junior |
| G Michael O’Connell – 6’2″, 195 – Senior |
| F/C Mohamed Diarra – 6’10”, 215 – Junior |
| G Breon Pass – 6’0″, 175 – Junior |
| F/C Ben Middlebrooks – 6’10”, 240 – Junior |
| G LJ Thomas – 6’2″, 205 – Sophomore |
| F Ernest Ross – 6’9″, 200 – Junior |
Experienced Reserves’ 2022-23 Stats
Kam Woods: 17.3 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 3.3 apg, 1.6 spg – 38.5% FG @ NC A&T
Michael O’Connell: 5.2 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 3.1 apg, 0.9 spg – 37.8% FG @ Stanford
Mohamed Diarra: 3.2 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 0.6 bpg, 0.5 spg – 40.0% FG @ Missouri
Breon Pass: 1.5 ppg, 0.8 rpg, 0.3 apg, 0.5 spg – 37.0% FG
Ben Middlebrooks: 3.1 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 0.5 bpg, 0.4 spg – 48.0% FG @ Clemson
LJ Thomas: 2.4 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 0.5 apg, 0.5 spg – 48.3% FG
Ernest Ross: 3.5 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 0.8 bpg, 0.4 spg – 50.0% FG
Freshmen
| W Dennis Parker, Jr – 6’6″, 205 – Freshman – Consensus Top 150 recruit |
A certain college basketball writer once said “We sleep in May.” While that was once a fun and mostly-correct statement, it is no longer entirely accurate. There is no offseason; only Zuul.
In Raleigh, they seem to understand that no matter what the calendar says, the reality of college basketball has changed – and that in order to run with the pack, one must join the chase fiercely.
In the new era of NIL and the Transfer Portal, Kevin Keatts has sorted his program out. The NC State head coach, on the hot seat not so long ago, had begun his State career with three consecutive seasons of 20 or more wins. Those Torin Dorn and Markell Johnson-led teams seem as shrouded in the past as an age when everyone but the players could profit off of their play and persona. After struggling to tread water just a couple of years ago, though, Keatts is playing this new game very well. And his new-look Pack feels like a legit contender once more.
After posting just 25 wins across two seasons combined coming into last year, Keatts has set things back on course in Raleigh. Last season, the Pack won 12 ACC games for the first time since 1974 and got back to the Big Dance on the backs of three outstanding guards and the wide shoulders of one DJ Burns, Jr. As has quickly become tradition, though, last year’s roster was so last year, and Keatts is welcoming a largely different cast of characters in hopes of the Pack hunting down even more auspicious prey this winter. There are a couple of returning studs, though; and the most prominently-seen of them had about as much fun as anyone in the sport last winter.
When he committed to the Pack last spring, DJ Burns was, to most State fans, some guy who once redshirted at Tennessee, left the SEC without ever playing a game, and had begun to star for a Big South power called Winthrop the past couple of years. Little did they know when he signed on to play for Keatts, that the ‘Smooth Operator’, wasn’t just stepping up to the ACC; he was stepping into their hearts. This spring, the gregarious big man announced that he was returning for his extra season. “I am incredibly proud to run with the Wolfpack,” Burns declared in a statement confirming his return. “This community has welcomed me with open arms and the support from the fans, alumni, and students has been overwhelming. I can’t wait to see what another great year has in store.”
As is the case for many of the biggest bigs, Burns has always tried to walk a fine line with his weight and conditioning. Last year, he was in some of the best shape of his life, and hopes to continue playing at a size that allows him to maximize his effectiveness. Burns has excellent touch and soft hands around the rim; last season he ranked fourth in the ACC by shooting 56.1% from the floor, and he ended up seventh in Player Efficiency Rating. It took a couple of weeks for the former Big South Player of the Year to get rolling, but after getting a sense for what the Pack needed and a chemistry with his sharpshooting teammates, Burns enthusiastically burst onto the ACC scene. Starting with his 18-point, 4-block effort in a win over Duke, ‘Big 30’ went on a tear for the rest of the season. Burns averaged 15+ points over State’s final 19 games, providing an anchor in the post and an outstanding contrast up front to the team’s otherwise guard-oriented attack.
Starting with his 18-point, 4-block effort in a win over Duke, ‘Big 30’ went on a tear for the rest of the season
“He’s had some big moments for us,” Keatts told The News & Observer in January of last season. “We finally have a guy we can throw the ball in and can get us some baskets. He gives us a different dimension on the offensive end.” While he’s excellent near the rim, Burns is even better from a few feet away. He shot an excellent 49.8% on 205 mid-range 2FG tries last year, per Bart Torvik, and has fluidity creating shots which few such powerful individuals can match. Burns is also a strong passer out of the post who reads the defense and incoming double-teams well. A crafty halfcourt post player whose patience and presence amplify his skills, Burns can take over games for stretches; “We had no answer for Burns,” Wake Forest coach Steve Forbes said during conference play. This season, Burns hopes to play closer to 30 minutes than the 23 he averaged last year, and with even better conditioning, make an even bigger impact on the boards and defensively. Now that his star has ascended into State’s sky, the Pack will continue to rely heavily upon Burns, and he couldn’t be happier than to keep coming up big for the people who adore him. “He’s such a tremendous personality,” Keatts said over the summer. “If you could say what’s a great fit for NC State, it’s DJ Burns. That’s both on and off the court.”
Casey Morsell’s excellent performance last year was so quiet that many people outside of Raleigh didn’t notice. What with the arrival of Burns and outstanding play from departed star guards Terquavion Smith and Jarkel Joiner, who could be blamed? State fans remember it, though – and so do the teams he helped to defeat. Long regarded as a solid defender and versatile support player, Morsell, a former Tony Bennett recruit at Virginia, also posted excellent offensive numbers across the board in his fourth college season. Now, back to play his own ‘Covid Year’, Morsell finds himself as the backcourt’s biggest returning star. Morsell is the type of player who would fit on almost any team; he takes smart shots, finds the open man, defends with great effort and is physically difficult for opponents to deal with for 30 minutes per game.
Last year, he slashed a best-yet shooting line of 47/41/79%. Morrell’s scoring approach has shifted more and more to the outside each of the past three seasons, and last year he ranked ninth in the ACC with 78 makes from the land of trey, and eighth in the league with a 61.4% true shooting percentage. A strong player who can finish at the rim, Morsell can be too much to handle when he gets a head of steam going towards the basket. A perimeter stopper who takes on the toughest covers in the ACC, Morsell also took a big step as a defensive playmaker last year; in addition to setting a new career high with 38 steals, he blocked 22 shots – just seven fewer than Burns. This year, Morsell will look to maintain his excellence from the outside while also asserting himself more off the bounce, and solidify his place as one of the ACC’s best all-around guards.
Guard play was the backbone of last year’s Pack, and though Morsell is a great pillar around which to build, Keatts knew that he would need more in order to absorb the losses of Smith and Joiner. The State coach employs an offensive system which works best when there are two highly capable ballhandlers and playmakers on the floor. It worked out so well last season that the Pack led the nation in fewest turnovers per offensive possession. “We do have that selling point for a guard that’s coming in,” Keatts mused to the Charlotte Observer. “Who wouldn’t want to play for me at the guard position?” So, as has quickly become sort of his thing, Keatts hit the Portal. From it, he’s drawn four experienced guards who will battle for a chance to put up numbers for the Pack.
DJ Horne spent his last two years out West at Arizona State, but now the Raleigh native is coming home to take one of those spots. Keatts is excited to see Horne’s fit in his offense, and to welcome a hometown favorite to the lineup. “You watch him play and the first thing that jumps out to you is that he’s a shot maker, and he’s not afraid of taking the big shots in clutch moments,” Keatts said when Horne pledged to play for State. “He’s more than just a shooter. He’s an intelligent player, and he can use his athleticism to create for himself and others.” Horne was named All-Missouri Valley three years ago at Illinois State, then transferred up and averaged 12.5 points, 3.2 boards and 2.2 assists across his two seasons at ASU. He’s made 253 triples already in his four years, and owns a 37.9% mark from deep over his career. He’s never functioned as the primary point guard for his team, but Horne has proven that he will create plays for his teammates. Horne posted a 16.5% assist rate a year ago, and dished out a career-best 83 assists against just 48 giveaways. Keatts won’t ask Horne to do it all himself, either; he wants Horne to play his most natural game. In a dynamic, shot-taking system like State’s, a ball-moving bucket-getter like Horne should thrive. “As [a] shooter you have to have a short mindset,” Horne told the Arizona Republic last January. “Just keep telling yourself shoot the shot the same way, keep playing the same way, make the right passes and hopefully some day the basketball gods will bless you.”
| Five Stats Which Tell The Tale (with national ranks) |
| 77.7 – Points Per Game (27th) |
| .441 – Assists Per Field Goal Made (339th) |
| +6.9 – Average Score Margin (43rd) |
| 51.0% – Opponent 2FG Percentage (215th) |
| 1.353 – Team Assists Per Turnover (33rd) |
While Morsell was going about his breakout season last winter, former Butler guard Jayden Taylor was having one of his own. Now, Taylor is a member if the Pack, and he’s ready to step even further into the spotlight this season. On a Butler team which consistently struggled to score, Taylor was a bright spot. Keatts remembers, because he had to game-plan a way to try and stop Taylor last year, and it didn’t entirely work. “We had a chance to see Jayden in-person when we played Butler in the Battle for Atlantis, and I was really impressed with his game, as he scored 18 points, did a great job of penetrating our defense and also hit a few three-pointers,” the coach recalled when Taylor signed. “I think he’s a natural fit in our system.” Keatts saw that Taylor has a good handle and has developed confidence in his ability to drive and put pressure on defenders. With his desire to put it on the floor, Taylor got to the free throw line more than four times per game a season past, where he’s a 76.9% shooter for his career. Taylor projects as a solid defender as well, and offers a bigger frame than Joiner or Smith last season. His form looks good from outside, and though Taylor has made just 31.3% of his triple tries through two years, there is a belief on State’s staff that it’s a just matter of time until he figures out how to become a steady weapon from downtown. He should get the chance to be a bit more selective and take open shots in rhythm this year, and, with Keatts looking on, Taylor should hit 18 in quite a few more games to come.
Stanford transfer Michael O’Connell is more of a pure point guard than Horne, and when Keatts wants to operate in the halfcourt with more of a traditional pass-first option, he’s got it. O’Connell reads the floor and picks his spots well, and he prefers driving at his man to hanging out and bombing away from the three point arc. O’Connell could stand to improve his outside shot, though, as he’s made less than 30% from deep each of the past two years and doesn’t consistently stretch defenses by scoring the ball. While he was rarely looked to as a primary scorer in Palo Alto, O’Connell is creative off the bounce and up until some hiccups last year had posted good shooting percentages from mid-range and closer. “I’m excited to add Michael to our program,” Keatts said upon his signing. “Watching tape on him, I see a guy that is highly skilled and plays with a chip on his shoulder and is competitive.” O’Connell has also started 76 career games and knows how to run an offense. If he’s the first guard off of State’s bench, Keatts will feel good about his offense continuing to operate smoothly no matter which lineup is out there.
Tremayne ‘Trey’ Parker, a Top 100 recruit, was expected to be seen arriving in Raleigh this fall. He instead reclassified to next year, and will spend another year developing with Overtime Elite before presumably joining next year’s team. For now, State fans will just have to put on their Jalen Lecque or Isaiah Miranda jerseys and hope they get to see Parker next year. For this year, State has added athletic 4-star wing Dennis Parker, Jr. A versatile player who thrives in the open floor and on drives to the cup, Dennis Parker offers some dynamic talent for Keatts & Co to develop. His jumper is streaky at this point, but Dennis Parker knows how to score the rock. “Defensively, Parker has talent and high upside to defend multiple positions,” 247 Sports says, and “depending on his development, he could end up being a one-through-four defender.”
| Five Out-of-Conference Games to Keep an Eye on |
| N – Tennessee – December 16 |
| @ Ole Miss – November 28 |
| N – Arizona State / BYU – November 24 |
| N – Vanderbilt – November 23 |
| vs Saint Louis – December 20 |
Since a scholarship for this year opened up, Keatts brought in former NC A&T guard Kam Woods from the Portal following Parker’s decision. While the CAA is not quite the ACC, Woods has enough skill to have posted a very Joiner-esque stat line in the less-heralded conference. Woods is quick and should be able to get some buckets against second units – and he may push for more of the prime minutes, too. Woods uses hesitation and change of speed to his advantage, and though his ballhandling can get a bit hectic, he makes the defense react and is capable of getting his own shot. With a good floater and the ability to hit three’s in bunches – he made 83 of them last year – Woods can score inside and out, but is just a 32.2% career shooter from deep. Woods could stand to improve his shot selection overall, and hopefully with less pressure on him to be ‘the guy’, Woods can settle into a microwave scoring role when Keatts needs a jolt for the offense.
Breon Pass and LJ Thomas return from last year’s team, and the young guards are hoping to take a step up this winter. Pass, who was also a standout football player in high school, has averaged just over eight minutes per game over his first two seasons, and hopes to earn a larger share of time at the point with some things in flux this fall. Thomas is larger and plays bigger; he was a strong per-minute rebounder last year as a freshman. Though he averaged slightly more time than Pass, Thomas is also hoping to add a little something different which will earn him more run this winter. If he can keep making 40+% of his triple tries, it will help.
Though his first year in college wasn’t what many had expected, MJ Rice remains an exceptional talent, and after not finding the niche he wanted at Kansas, the young wing has come back to his home state looking for a chance to show all that he can do. “He’s a young man that we recruited heavily when he was in high school,” Keatts said after finally landing local product Rice. “He’s an incredible talent, and I think he’s going to unlock his full potential in our system. He’s got a really strong body and that paired with his explosiveness gives him great scoring ability.” Rice won’t be the tallest wing in the ACC, but he’s wide and strong; and when he gets a matchup to exploit, Rice has no qualms about bullying his way to the rim. He’s explosive with ball in his hands near the basket, and has an aggressive attitude to match. While he didn’t show much of an outside shot in limited minutes at KU, Rice has looked good shooting deep jumpers this summer and should hit more than enough at range to keep defenses honest this year. Keatts has stated the he envisions Rice operating as the fifth starter in a potentially even more high-octane 4-out offense around Burns. There is real excitement around Rice’s return, and he figures to be given the chance to play a big role if his sophomore re-set goes according to plan.
Ernest Ross returns as a reserve forward after averaging 11 minutes and appearing in every game last year. Ross was himself a 4-star recruit three years ago, but has yet to really show much of an offensive repertoire. While Rice is an undersized bowling ball at the 4, Ross is tall, slender, bouncy and can be a terrific shot blocker when he’s moving crisply and not caught out of position. Fouls and turnovers have kept him from a bigger role so far, but Ross could be a nice stylistic bookend to Rice this season.
While Burns is hoping to earn up the lion’s share of minutes at the pivot, Keatts brought in a pair of taller, more mobile reserves to add contrast and depth behind Burns. With the Transfer Portal having been dubbed ‘college free agency’, why not a trade between rivals also? That’s not what happened, but former State forward Jack Clark has gone to Clemson via the Portal, while former Clemson big Ben Middlebrooks left to find a better fit, and is now running with the Pack. There were not any players to be named later included in the non-transaction. Make sense? Middlebrooks is a mobile post player with untapped offensive upside, and he believes that Keatts plays a style that will help him reach that potential. He told 247 Sports as much, saying “I think that the way they [NC State] play is a little bit more free-flowing than what it is at Clemson…A little bit less play-oriented and a little bit less controlled. I think it would fit me well.”
Mohamed Diarra arrives from Missouri with a reputation as a rangy rim protector who can really get from one end of the floor to the other. The French big man has great length and rebounding instincts, and is helpful on the glass even when he’s not doing a great deal else. “I’m excited to add Mohamed to our program,” his new coach said when Diara committed. “He’s a very talented player with a great upside. He averaged a double-double two years ago in junior college and even though he didn’t replicate those numbers last season at Missouri, he was a valuable player on a team that advanced to the second round of the NCAA Tournament. I think Mohamed will take the next step in his development in our program and is an excellent addition to our locker room.”
Last year, NC State got it rolling because they scored points, took care of the ball, and made plays on the defensive end. Keatts has proven that his style of play can work; and how strange & wonderful that like any playbook, it works best when standout players are out there executing.
While Joiner and Smith are a pretty tough pair of shot-makers to replace, NC State has brought in a bunch of good, proven players to figure things out. And, of course, there’s that big fella to throw it down to when all else fails. If the Pack can continue to value possessions – and maybe share the ball even better than last year – the offense will continue to hum along. What’s more, there is depth enough that Keatts can let is guys run as hard as they want. There are questions about who will emerge to most support Burns inside and whether an every-game #4 scoring option will emerge. With players like Rice and Taylor appearing to be on the verge of breakout seasons, though, things may take care of themselves.
“I like what we’re doing with this,” Keatts told the Charlotte Observer of his roster as it came together this summer. “I love the group of kids that we have there. We’ve got great personalities.” NC State is showing that it can ride the tides of roster change, and that makes sense. The Wolfpack is one of nature’s most adaptable units. Fortunately for the folks in red, this group is staying fierce and has plenty of players who can step up when it’s their turn. And with a certified Dude up front who’s beastlier than most, NC State is ready to run towards March once again.
Leave a Reply