Last Year: 23-14; Ninth (10-10) in the Big Ten Conference, lost in the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament
Head Coach: Mike Rhoades (First Year; went 129-61 in six years at VCU with three NCAA Tournament appearances)
Projected Starting Lineup
| PG Adrian ‘Ace’ Baldwin, Jr – 6’1″, 190 – Senior |
| G RayQuawndis Mitchell – 6’5″, 195 – Senior (5th) |
| W Nick Kern – 6’6″, 200 – Junior |
| F Puff Johnson – 6’8″, 205 – Senior |
| C Qudus Wahab – 6’11”, 245 – Senior (5th) |
Projected Starters’ 2022-23 Stats
Ace Baldwin: 12.7 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 5.8 apg, 2.2 spg – 42.1% FG @ VCU
RayQuawndis Mitchell: 17.3 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.3 apg, 0.7 spg – 34.5% FG @ Kansas City
Nick Kern: 5.3 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 0.8 apg, 0.7 spg – 62.0% FG @ VCU
Puff Johnson: 4.1 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 0.4 apg, 0.6 spg – 38.7% FG @ North Carolina
Qudus Wahab: 9.6 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 0.7 bpg, 0.6 spg – 51.1% FG @ Georgetown
Experienced Reserves
| G Kanye Clary – 5’11”, 195 – Sophomore |
| F Zach Hicks – 6’8″, 200 – Junior |
| G D’Marco Dunn – 6’5″, 200 – Junior |
| C Favour Aire – 6’11”, 220 – Sophomore |
| G Jameel Brown – 6’4″, 188 – Sophomore |
| F Leo O’Boyle – 6’7″, 225 – Senior (5th) |
| F/C Demetrius Lilley – 6’10”, 245 – Sophomore: |
Experienced Reserves’ 2022-23 Stats
Kanye Clary: 3.7 ppg, 0.9 rpg, 0.7 apg, 0.3 spg – 43.4% FG
Zach Hicks: 9.6 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 1.6 apg, 0.7 spg – 35.6% 3FG @ Temple
D’Marco Dunn: 2.7 ppg, 0.7 rpg, 0.2 apg, 0.3 spg – 42.4% FG @ North Carolina
Favour Aire:
Jameel Brown: 0.9 ppg, 0.1 rpg, 0.2 apg, 0.1 spg – 18.8% FG
Leo O’Boyle: 11 6 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 1.6 apg, 0.9 spg – 40.7% 3FG @ Lafayette
Demetrious Lilley: 4 points in 14 minutes played
Freshmen
| G Bragi Guðmundsson – 6’5″, 175 – Freshman / Iceland |
Penn State really had some nice momentum going last season. The Nittany Lions’ veteran core had gelled and finished strong, making a run through the Big Ten Tournament and winning a game in the Big Dance. Lots of nice momentum for a program that’s unused to consistent success on the hardwood.
So, of course, coach Micah Shrewsbury, the architect of that success, left Happy Valley for a nice new office near some golden dome. Undaunted, Penn State tabbed former VCU head coach Mike Rhoades to be their new leader, and the first task he set to was restocking one of the barest cupboards in the country. Rhoades has had no choice but to bring in a great many players from the Transfer Portal in order to make this team competitive in the short term. In the process, he and his staff have gotten to live a sorta/kinda version of the childhood dream of running a fantasy draft on a blank-canvas roster.
“The neat thing about starting a program or building a program and putting your tag on it is getting guys to see what they’re capable of doing on a daily basis, on a weekly basis and as a team going forward into the season,” Rhoades said in October. “That’s a great adventure for me. Getting the guys to understand that you have to stack days together and all that.”
A couple of the new faces that were selected even followed Rhoades from Virginia Commonwealth, which is likely to prove a good thing. Penn State is going to have to win some rock fights this season. So who better to have on your side than the guys that have literally been living on ‘Havoc’ street for the past few years? Most importantly of all, Rhoades brought with him one of the most electric players in the country to be his captain.
Adrian Baldwin, Jr – ‘Ace’ to the world of basketball – arrives in Happy Valley with his reputation already established as one of the nation’s best point guards and team leaders. He is a sensational ballhandler who plays with veteran poise and knows how to change pace and gears as needed to adjust his team’s attack to the flow of the game. Baldwin can get to virtually any spot on the floor with his low, controlled dribble, and has become increasingly confident shooting from the outside. While his range beyond 20 feet can still be streaky, Baldwin has proven that he can heat up and become virtually unstoppable; witness his 37 points last season in a nationally-televised win against conference rival Saint Louis and their star guard, Yuri Collins. When Baldwin puts it on the floor, he’s looking to create the best shot for his team and is perfectly happy if that shot is taken by someone else. He employs a terrific pull-up game, and will hit runners and fall-aways if his dribble is cut off. While Baldwin has proven highly capable of finishing at the rim, it’s also there that he does some of his slickest passing. Best of all, he shows no fear absorbing contact or being flung into the stanchion if it means getting his team a bucket. A maestro of the pick-and-roll, Baldwin uses his great feel for reading defenders to find opportunities for himself, and if nothing else is open, Baldwin can guide a lob pass that nearly puts itself through the net.
Defensively, Baldwin is a terror with his explosive quickness and relentless pressure. He racked up 183 steals in 80 games at VCU, and last season was awarded both the Atlantic 10 Defensive Player of the Year and conference Player of the Year. “He’s the head of our snake. He’s the competitive leader in our program. He’s that type of point guard that he makes an impact,” Rhoades explained in March at the NCAA Tournament. “I’ve always said that, from a long time ago, the best players, not because of their stat line, are the ones that impact winning in so many ways. The greatest compliment you can get in a team sport is you make those around you better. That’s Ace on a daily basis.” Baldwin has been in the spotlight since he was a freshman in high school, and has fought through injuries, opponents and the untimely passing of his father, Adrian Baldwin Sr, to arrive on the biggest stage of his life. If everything he’s accomplished so far is any indication, Ace will be ready for his biggest moment yet.
“The greatest compliment you can get in an team sport is you make those around you better. That’s Ace on a daily basis”
– Mike Rhoades
The guy Baldwin is likely to find most often on the other end of screen-and-roll action is Qudus Wahab, a well-traveled pivot with plenty of potential still to realize. Wahab has spent three of his seasons under the tutelage of Patrick Ewing at Georgetown, learning how to play in the post from one of the best to ever do it. He also had a stop at Maryland in between that wasn’t quite the success some had anticipated it being. While his production has fluctuated, Wahab possesses some unteachable gifts and a couple of solid, translatable skills – and playing with Baldwin may be the best thing that’s ever happened to Wahab. A true center who is experienced at scoring on the block, Wahab does his best work when he catches cleanly, makas an assertive initial move to the goal, and goes straight to the rim. He’s developed a leaner more than a classic hook shot, but he can get to it reliably and Wahab has the length to adjust when defenders get creative. While Wahab has focused on his footwork, he sometimes doesn’t seem to have everything going in the same direction at the same time or over-dribbles trying to get a cleaner look. Fortunately, Baldwin should help Wahab to get great, clean looks. Wahab is effective both screening and rolling or slipping to the rim when the action goes elsewhere.
With a 7’5″ wingspan, Wahab is an effective rim protector and can be a physical presence in the lane. He’s worked hard to become better at avoiding cheap fouls when caught out of position, and Rhoades will need Wahab to stay on the floor for 25+ effective minutes per game. While the Maryland experiment teaches that expectations are tricky and that not every player fits perfectly into a given situation based upon need, Wahab has proven that he is a genuine scoring option in the paint at the high major level. If he can finish good passes, play clean defense, and continue rebounding effectively, Wahab should be a very important part of this team’s success.
With the pick-and-roll seen to, Rhoades knew he needed shooters. Too often at VCU, where Havoc reigns, the defense was exceptional but the shooting was not, and Baldwin’s pinpoint passes hit the hands of guys who couldn’t knock down an open jumper. So, Rhoades lured all the different sorts of shooters that he could find to Happy Valley.
Of them, Nittany Lions fans are most excited to see a pair of former Tar Heels who never quite got untracked in Carolina blue. Puff Johnson played a lot of minutes in Chapel Hill, he just never quite translated the potential he had shown in high school into college statistics. One of Johnson’s most memorable games came in a losing effort against Kansas for the national title, when on the biggest stage, Johnson looked like a natural. Then there were stretches of his UNC career like his final twelve games last year, when Johnson failed to score in double figures a single time, and shot just 20% from the outside.
So the lanky wing said ‘goodbye, Carolina’; and on the other side of that Blue Ridge sky, found a comfortable match with the system which Rhoades will employ. Some rated Johnson as a Top 50 recruit out of high school, given the smooth release on his jumper and great length, defensive versatility and high motor he showed as a teenager. And Johnson has shown all of those skills in college; just, inconsistently. At times he’s been pushed around in the lane, and the confidence in his outside shot has wandered. Johnson remains a tremendous talent, however, and Rhoades is going to try to revitalize him. Johnson is extremely mobile for his size, and can get to rebounds and opponents’ passes even if they’re well outside of his area. With added strength – and a bit more attitude – Johnson has real mismatch potential inside the arc as well, as his 73% career mark on shots near the rim indicates. If he can find the confidence in his stroke from the outside, Baldwin will find Johnson with plenty of feeds and everything else should begin falling into place.
D’Marco Dunn, like Johnson, came to Chapel Hill as a touted freshman, but only played mop-up minutes in his rookieyear. It wasn’t hugely better for Dunn last year, as Heels coach Hubert Brown tended to use a pretty tight rotation and Dunn carved out an average of just ten minutes per game. When he was out there, Dunn showed off a clean jumper and even snuck inside for a few putbacks, but he generally didn’t have extended opportunities to handle the ball or get lots of shots up. Rhoades sees Dunn as a deep threat who can spot up and make the opposition pay for packing their defense inside, then burn closeout defenders on drives. If Dunn can utilize his athleticism and the instincts he has shown at times to get going towards the basket instead of hanging on the perimeter, easier buckets will come along with the 3-ball’s.
RayQuawndis Mitchell and Nick Kern are experienced wings who offer a blend of different talents to the rotation. Mitchell can really hit from the outside; he is also one of the most proven scorers on this roster and a threat going to the basket every bit as much as he is from the deep. Playing for his fourth program now, Mitchell has seen a great many different defenses over the course of his career, and has become more and more adept at solving them each year. He led Missouri-Kansas City in scoring last year, though his points weren’t the most efficiently-acquired tallies in America. The Roos struggled mightily to score when Mitchell or Shemarri Allen weren’t getting buckets, and thus Mitchell had to do some chucking at times. While he made 79 triples last season, Mitchell did so at just a 30.5% rate.
| Five Stats Which Tell The Tale (with national ranks) |
| 66.4 – Possessions Per Game (334th) |
| 55.4% – Effective FG Percentage (12th) |
| 7.2 – Opponent 3FG Made Per Game (185th) |
| 38.7% – Team 3FG Percentage (7th) |
| .213 – Free Throw Attempts Per Field Goal Attempt (361st) |
He was significantly more effective once he had gotten to the rim, and once there, Mitchell converted 51% of his tries – a percentage which should rise with better shot selection. It’s just that Mitchell spent far more of his attempts from farther out than that, and many of them were under duress. This year, Rhoades is hoping that Mitchell can be more selective, and tighten up both his shooting percentages (he was at 35% from the field overall) and his ballhandling (he coughed up 3.1 turnovers per game last year). If he can play efficiently, Mitchell could become a great secondary facilitator on the wing. And given that he loves spotting up on either wing, he’ll present a floor-stretching option for feeds coming out of the paint.
Kern is like so many players that the Rams have had over the past twenty years. He is highly athletic, tough, a tenacious defender and…not much of a scorer. He grew his role significantly last season as a sophomore, starting 19 games and nearly doubling his average minutes while proving that he can get at least some buckets. Kern has made just a pair of three-point shots through two years, and only attempted 21 total shots that weren’t around the rim last season, per Bart Torvik. He was effective in close, though, converting 69% of those shots, with 22 dunks.
With his length and occasional bursts of explosive athleticism, Kern can slice to the rim and sometimes takes defenders on an impromptu ride to the bucket. It’s just that, every so often, Kern will make a quick burst in from the top of the key, power through the lane, pick up his dribble on his final stride to the cup and toss a brick off of the side of the backboard. He’s terrific at finishing on the break, though, and Kern is an excellent defender with his long arms and quick feet. He’s earned the bulk of his minutes for Rhoades so far by playing sticky, high-pressure defense on a variety of scorers, and will continue to do so. If he can refine his offensive game and become a guy that defenders have to worry about on the perimeter, it will be icing on the cake.
While the two former Tar Heels may be shooters who haven’t quite gotten the chance to show off their talents, Rhoades has brought aboard two experienced shooters in Leo O’Boyle and Zach Hicks who, when given the opportunity, have proven that they’ll knock down three’s. Hicks is, like Johnson, a guy with great length to go with his sound jumper. While he didn’t command many shots at Temple, Hicks knocked down plenty of triples when he did get the ball. In fact, he canned 80 of them last season, at 36.0% – but attempted just 67 total 2FG’s. While he is very much a 3-and-D type, Hicks isn’t a ferocious, physical defender. What he has, though, is great size and anticipation. Hocks started every game last year for the Owls, and was savvy and effective enough to average more than 32 minutes per night. Hicks uses his reach and the footspeed he’s got to play an efficient game, and that’s exactly what Rhoades wants him to keep on being, saying that Hicks is “an exact fit for our style of play and approach.”
O’Boyle has joined the Lions after four years at Lafayette, and the Scranton native is a floor-stretching forward of the type that Rhoades has employed before. Last season for the Rams, David Shriver played the stretch-4 spot off of VCU’s bench, and provided a vital bit of outside shooting on a team that had few knock-down threats. Rhoades is hoping to get more production from beyond the arc in general from his first Penn State team, and O’Boyle is very much at the heart of those plans. He will likely come off the bench, as did Shriver, given that Rhoades has built his roster to play mostly with one big surrounded by guards and wings. This will also take advantage of O’Boyle’s talents while masking his weaknesses; he may struggle to keep up with or outmuscle frontcourt players in the Big Ten. O’Boyle’s offensive talent has translated into 1,000+ points scored at the D1 level; and having averaged 11 points on 38% from deep over 30 minutes per game the past two years, O’Boyle could very well become a significant cog in Penn State’s offense this winter.
| Five Out-of-Conference Games to Keep an Eye on |
| N – Texas A&M – November 23 |
| N – Florida Atlantic / Butler – November 24 |
| N – TBD; ESPN Events Invitational – November 26 |
| vs Lehigh – November 10 |
| vs Morehead State – November 17 |
Being that Rhoades is starting so close to completely over with this year’s roster, he and his staff tried to keep an eye towards the future even as they looked for ways to win now. To that end, he signed one freshman and added another developmental player who barely played as a freshman, to go along with the three holdovers Penn State still has from last year’s team. Jameel Brown is a bigger scoring guard, and while he didn’t play many minutes last season, the practice time he put in against all of the veterans should begin to pay off this winter. Brown was a deep threat in high school, and if he can knock down three’s with some consistency, Brown may have a path to growing his role.
The most experienced of the three returnees only averaged 10 minutes per game last year. Even on one of the most experienced teams in the country, though, Kanye Clary showed that he has skills that will play immediately. Over Penn State’s final 13 games, Clary played almost 15 minutes per night and averaged 6 points; but it wasn’t just his numbers that stood out. Clary is a tough, drive-oriented guard whose slippery tours through the paint added a great wrinkle to last year’s team off of the bench, and Clary showed that he could create and make quality shot attempts. A good passer and fiesty defender as well, Clary needs only to improve his outside shot and overall consistency to take his game to the next level, and he may well double the average time he’s on the court as a sophomore. “I love dynamic guards and guys that can make plays with the ball in their hands, and Kayne is one of them,” Rhoades told reporters in October. “To put him together with Ace Baldwin, that’s a dynamic backcourt.”
Bragi Guðmundsson is the latest scion of Iceland’s most recognizable basketball family to sign with a Division I American program. Guðmundsson, whose brothers Jón Axel and Ingvi played for Davidson and Saint Louis, respectively, will look to make his own way in Happy Valley. A scoring guard with good length and a solid, if streaky, outside shot, Guðmundsson and his brothers are the children of parents Stefanía Jònsdóttir and Guðmundur Bragason, who each played for their respective Icelandic national basketball teams. There aren’t many players on a high major roster anywhere in the country who are the only freshman on their team. If Guðmundsson can adjust and hit the ground running, it will be quite a feat, but the talent is there. “He comes from a great basketball family and fits our style of play,” Rhoades said of Guðmundsson. “He will be one of our younger players, but his vast international experience will help him in his transition at Penn State.”
Rounding out the first rotation Rhoades will coach in Happy Valley are two young pivots looking to earn some legitimate run. There will be at least 10 minutes per game needed from them in order to keep Wahab fresh. The best teams Rhoades has had so far have all featured at least a couple of different shot-blockers and versatile defenders around the lane, and it will go a long way towards legitimizing Penn State’s frontcourt if Wahab has some help.
Favour Aire was a consensus Top 150 prospect when he signed with Miami (FL) last year. He barely saw the floor in Coral Gables, though, and is certainly hoping to show that the talent remains to earn a role as Penn State’s center of the future. Aire is a long and long-armed defender with good mobility, and he plays hard. When he did get to play for Miami, he was an active presence on the glass, and he busts it up and down the court to establish position. Though not really a shooter, Aire has shown off a solid hook shot and knows what to do with a lob. Rhoades is hoping that as he adds strength and settles in, the light will go on for Aire. Demetrius Lilley was with the Nittany Lions last year, but he played just 14 minutes all year. This summer he has worked hard to get into the best shape of his life in anticipation of playing in the go-go system Rhoades prefers. Lilley has soft hands and some good footwork inside, and could offer a bit of contrast to Aire.
This team is so new that it is hard to compare to recent Penn State or VCU squads. The constants which indicate how this group will go are its leaders: Rhoades and Baldwin.
“I came here to win. I came here to try to win big and doing it the right way with great student-athletes, but people that want to play basketball and guys that want to play basketball at Penn State, and I believe we’ve gotten off to a good start on that,” Rhoades told reporters at his first Big 10 Media Day. His teams at VCU always played extremely hard, and they fought for the whole 40 minutes defensively. That won’t change. If he’s attracted enough outside shooting, Rhoades has all of the pieces in place to win and contend for an NCAA Tournament spot this year. And with Baldwin – who is about to become a genuine superstar – to lead the way, Penn State has the sort of player who can will his team to extraordinary heights.
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