#54: Iowa Hawkeyes

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Last Year: 19-15; 10-10, Sixth in the Big Ten Conference, lost in the second round of the NIT

Head Coach: Fran McCaffery (15th Year; 280-191 at Iowa, with seven NCAA Tournament appearances)

Projected Starting Lineup

PG Drew Thelwell – 6’3″, 195 5th-year Senior

G Josh Dix – 6’6″, 210 Junior

W Payton Sandfort – 6’8″, 215 Senior

F Seydou Traoré – 6’7″, 220 Sophomore

F/C Owen Freeman – 6’10”, 245 Sophomore

Experienced Reserves

G Brock Harding – 6’2″, 165 Sophomore

W Pryce Sandfort – 6’7″, 210 Sophomore

F/C Ladji Dembele – 6’8″, 255 Sophomore

F/C Even Brauns – 6’9″, 238 5th-year Senior

Freshmen

F Cooper Koch – 6’8″, 215 / Top 100 recruit

F Chris Tadjo – 6’8″, 240

Welcome to the domain of House Sandfort. In Hawkeye country, legacy and lineage mean something. Iowa has rolled a succession of successful, fraternal lineups over the last decade. Head coach Fran McCaffery has led two of his own sons (Connor and Patrick), and under his guidance the Murray brothers (Keegan and Kris) accelerated their development into NBA stars. Now, Iowa features a new dynasty, and its eldest scion is preparing to stamp his mark as the next great Hawkeye warlord.

All of this lore is well-known around Iowa City, where great individual players and great family connections have been the norm for a while. What the black and gold-clad faithful want now is a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. For all of the accolades the Hawkeyes have racked up in recent years, it’s been 25 years since the program advanced beyond the first weekend of the Big Dance. 

With Patrick off to colonize new lands for the McCafferys in Indiana, this year’s squad will be fairly young and feature some new faces around its All-Big Ten star. For a program that has seen fairly remarkable continuity during what’s been an increasingly free-wheeling time for the sport, an injection of some different ingredients may be just what’s needed to make a different sort of run. And for Iowa’s fiery, long-tenured head coach, it’s another chance to put an exclamation point on what’s been a standout career. 

After a breakout junior campaign, Payton Sandfort very nearly left for the NBA this spring. Standing 6’7″ and oozing all sorts of perimeter skills, Payton’s evolution kicked into high gear last fall, and this time around, the Waukee, IA, native has big, bold ambitions in mind. After leading the Big Ten in made triples (94), with the third-best rate, (37.9%), Payton’s most easily-observed skill is his marksmanship. With the ability to heat up and carry his team’s offense, everything else Payton does has been built upon his foundation as an elite shooter. 

Payton Sandfort is looking to become the next Hawkeye superstar (photo: Iowa Athletics)

As he’s grown stronger, quicker, and more aggressive in his approach, Payton’s drive game and playmaking skills have begun to shine, also. With so many of the attributes of a pro small forward coming naturally to him, no wonder the Association’s scouts will continue to track his progress closely. Iowa doesn’t have many dribble-drive guys, especially after losing Tony Perkins to Missouri. It would give meaningful versatility to their offense if Payton could become one, and such a threat would make his outstanding shooting that much more effective. This year, Payton is hoping to flesh out even more of his game by further polishing his offense and becoming a strong defender. 

Everyone remembers Luka Garza, but he’s not the only star Iowa’s had in the post since McCaffery has been in charge – and last season, Hawkeye fans were introduced to their newest standout. Owen Freeman stepped straight into the Iowa lineup last fall, and showed very few signs of being a freshman. The new kid ended up starting 25 games, leading the Hawkeyes in rebounding, and ranking fourth in the rough-and-tumble Big Ten in blocks. For his efforts, Freeman was named the league’s co-Rookie of the Year. Now, he’s looking to co-star with Payton Sandfort in leading a return to the NCAA Tournament. 

To do so, Freeman will need to defend at a high level as the team’s primary big. He tended to pick up fouls in clusters as a rookie, and though Freeman is a very effective rim protector, he will need to hold his ground and limit scorers as they look to power through him in the post. Offensively, he’s an energetic player who carves out good position inside and handles the ball confidently, and Freeman was very assertive in taking good looks straight at the rim last season. Though the overwhelming majority of Freeman’s offense came from right around the rim to start out, he threw down 44 dunks as a rookie and shot 61.4% from the floor. He’s put in good work during the offseason to expand his shooting range, and Iowa is expecting Freeman to emerge as an all-conference player as a sophomore. 

Five Stats Which Tell The Tale (with national ranks)
47.6% – Team Field Goal Percentage (30th)
45.8% – Opponent FG Percentage (282nd)
9.6 – Turnovers Per Game (18th)
6.6 – Made 3FG Per Game (249th)
8.0 – Opponent 3FG Per Game (269th)
Source: TeamRankings.com

For the first 45 or so games of his collegiate career, Josh Dix showed glimpses of turning into a score-from-anywhere shooter who could set a defense back on its heels. From early January of last season onward, though, those glimpses started turning into quite a highlight reel. The lanky guard from Council Bluffs, IA, posted absurdly efficient numbers late last year, and figures to have a vibrant green light to let fly as a junior. Over Iowa’s final 19 games last season, Dix averaged 31 minutes and 12.0 points, and he did so with incendiary shooting splits of 60.4/43.6/84.8% on two’s, three’s, and freebies. With a considerable chunk of the proven scoring gone from his last squad, McCaffery needs Dix to keep on lighting it up. Among the biggest reasons to expect that he can maintain high-quality efficiency is that Dix has always been a slick shooter, but he doesn’t just rely upon the three-ball to get his points. Now that he’s older, savvier, and has put in the gym work necessary to fight through screens and waves of defenders, Dix is preparing to expand his game. 

“Just continuing to get more athletic,” Dix described his offseason focus, speaking at an NIL collective fundraiser this summer. “But also I’ve been working a lot on just my off-the-move 3-pointer, off-the-dribble 3-pointer. I feel like I got the midrange kinda decently good. So off the dribble and stuff, just kinda expanding that out to the 3-point (line).” Most people would describe his mid-range game as far more than ‘kinda decently good’; last year, only nine players in America shot better than Dix’s 53.8% mark from the in-between spots on at least 75 attempts. As his game evolves behind the arc, Dix’s combination of quick, smooth release and good length should make him one of the more dangerous bombardiers around. And, of course, if opponents have to worry about both Payton Sandfort and Dix going off from the perimeter, Freeman and the Hawkeyes’ other young forwards are going to feast. 

There have been plenty of fairly traditional power forwards to suit up for the Hawkeyes in recent years. Seydou Traoré is something different. As a contrast to the smooth-operating Payton Sandfort, Traoré is a wing forward with a powerfully athletic game, and he already has a varied set of tools at his disposal.

“He has an all-around game,” Dix enthused when describing Traoré. “He can bring the ball up. He got some dribble moves to him. He can shoot the three, midrange and is super athletic, too. So he’ll be really good for us.” As a freshman last year at Manhattan, Traoré wasted no time showing what he can do. He started 27 games, averaged more than 32 minutes per contest, and finished either first or second on the team in a host of statistical categories. His jumper is still leveling up, but Traoré scores consistently on quick post-up’s, second chance opportunities, and slashes to the cup. Traoré ranked second in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference in rebounding and eighth in steals per game, and he led the league in blocked shots as a rookie. He’s also quick enough to guard on the perimeter, then switch it up and cover a good many big guys. With his ability to cause all sorts of problems for the other team on that end, it’s highly likely that Traoré will earn the minutes to more fully develop his offense repertoire 

Five Out-of-Conference Games to Keep an Eye on
vs Iowa State – December 12
N Utah State – November 22
N Washington State – November 15
N Utah – December 21
vs South Dakota – November 12
Source: D1Docket.blogspot.com

The point guard spot is in more flux than it’s often been in recent years, but McCaffery has both a solid veteran and a rising prospect who will compete for some of the most important minutes on the team. Over the past two seasons at Morehead State, Drew Thelwell developed into a steady, productive playmaker for a strong team. Across those campaigns, Thelwell has posted 10.5 points and 4.5 assists, as well as knocking down 35.9% of his triple tries. The 211 helpers he dishes out last winter ranked 15th nationally, and Thelwell handed out almost three times as many assists than he coughed up turnovers. Less of an attacker off the bounce and more of a read-the-defense and steady distribution guy, if Thelwell can add a bit more zest to his scoring game or become a truly knock-down shooter, it will go a long way towards him locking up the point guard job. As the larger and more experienced contender, Thelwell will also be needed to play tough, sticky defense despite the jump from Ohio Valley to Big Ten Conference. 

He may be smaller, less experienced, and even still look a bit like a high schooler, but Brock Harding can hoop at the high major level. The perimeter ‘yin’ to Freeman’s interior ‘yang’, the two sophomores were prep stars together in Moline, IL, and came to Iowa City to continue that legacy. Now that Freeman has established himself, it’s Harding’s turn. A slick ballhandler who doesn’t make mistakes, Harding is also a fantastic passer who was fantastically efficient as a rookie. Though his sample size wasn’t huge – he averaged 10.8 minutes per game – Harding posted an outstanding 38.0% assist rate as a freshman. He’s very much a pass-first floor general and distributor at this point, but Harding has shooting range, too. As he adds consistency to his jumper and the strength to score more regularly inside the arc, Harding will be able to take advantage of defenders who don’t yet view him as a bucket. 

Payton Sandfort’s younger brother, Pryce, has the scoring instincts and shooting skills to make a name for himself. A Top 100 prospect two years ago, Pryce Sandfort brings a bunch of the same attributes and size on the perimeter which have made his older brother a star. Following a promising but not terribly impressive freshman season, Hawkeye fans are wondering: how good is Pryce Sandfort ready to be?

“A lot of times a guy comes in, he is a freshman, he is coming off the bench. He wants to be solid, and we need solid. We don’t need mistake-makers,” McCaffery explained this fall. “In Pryce’s case there was so much more in his game than we were seeing in the beginning, and you started to see it manifest itself at the end of the year.” The state of Iowa’s Mr. Basketball two years ago, Pryce Sandfort began high school career as a point guard and has shown real creativity with the ball in the past. To make strides, he needs to score confidently and efficiently, and when things start to click, Pryce’s playmaking skills and overall floor game should shine. McCaffery has indicated that Pryce is looking stronger and smoother this summer, and that the light may be about to come on. 

Brock Harding has the IQ and developing skills of a stalwart point guard (photo: Iowa Athletics)

Three young forwards will battle a veteran for the top minutes as frontcourt reserves. There’s a great deal of potential among the group, and two of the contenders began to show what they could do for the Hawkeyes last year. Even Brauns, now a fifth-year senior, returned to his hometown of Iowa City last fall after a solid performance at Belmont. He got into 18 games but scored just five baskets all year. He gives great looks in practice and works very hard, but Brauns will face another intense fight for playing time. Big, wide sophomore Ladji Dembele is back following a solid start which saw him average 11.1 minutes a year ago. He’s a powerful force around the basket, and Dembele is a terrific screener. If he can show more patience and cut down on his fouls, Dembele should level up in a hurry, and he’ll be able to give a different look at the 5 spot. 

McCaffery & Co are also welcoming a couple of highly-rated freshmen. Cooper Koch is a consensus Top 100 recruit who can stretch the floor and play some in the post as well. He’s got good touch and advanced scoring instincts all over the halfcourt, and Koch should be able to make an impact as a scorer in the near future. To do so, Koch will need to prove himself on the boards and defensively. Iowa’s second rookie is a bit raw, but Chris Tadjo already knows how to make a ruckus. 

“Super athletic,” Dix said of Tadjo this summer. “Really physical for a freshman. He’s still working on his jumper a little bit. But he’ll be good.” Born in Africa and raised in Canada, Tadjo attended the NBA Latin America Academy last year and flashed impressive skills in transition and around the rim. He’s got the size, attitude, and bounce to play in the Big Ten, and Tadjo ought to be quite entertaining as he puts it all together. 

Over the past two seasons, the Hawkeyes have gone 38-29, and they’re only two games over .500 in B1G play in that time. As has been the case before, though, this year the Hawkeyes are hoping to ride a major star back into the NCAA Tournament. The supporting cast around Payton Sandfort is young and improving, and there are individuals who appear to be only a step or two away from stardom in their own right. 

A stronger group of post players should be stronger on the glass and give McCaffery more varied options to match up defensively, but the perimeter guys must prove that they can play a two-way game. The Hawkeyes aren’t exactly facing a murderers row during non-conference play, so there will be opportunities to build the young guys’ confidence. If it all comes together like Iowa is hoping, this young team can shake off some of the negatives which have dogged them lately. With improvements and greater consistency, the Hawkeyes should be able to challenge the best teams in an even bigger Big Ten. 

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