College Hoops Top 50

Last Year: 14-18; 8-12, ninth in the Pac-12 Conference

Head Coach: Kyle Smith (First year; had gone 94-71 in 5 years at at Washington State, with one NCAA Tournament appearance

Projected Starting Lineup

PG Jaylen Blakes – 6’2″, 205 5th-year Senior

G Derin Saran – 6’4″, 190 Sophomore

G Oziyah Sellers – 6’5″, 185 Junior

F Chisom Okpara – 6’8″, 225 Junior

C Maxime Raynaud – 7’1″, 250 Senior

Experienced Reserves

G Benny Gealer – 6’1″, 175 Junior

G Ryan Agarwal – 6’6″, 190 Junior

F Jaylen Thompson – 6’8″, 190 Sophomore

F Cole Kastner – 6’7″, 215 5th-year Senior

Freshmen

G Anthony Batson, Jr – 6’3″, 185

W Evan Stinson – 6’7″, 190

F Donavin Young – 6’8″, 210

F/C Aidan Cammann – 6’10”, 220 (Redshirt)

F/C Tallis Toure – 6’11”, 220

Don’t look at the map, just accept that Stanford plays in the Atlantic Coast Conference now and let’s move on. 

Some things have changed for the Cardinal since the end of last season. Not a crazy lot, just…their league affiliation, the region they’ll be traveling to for most games, their head coach, and most of their roster. Just the usual sorta stuff for an offseason in the mid-2020’s. 

Stanford plucked Kyle Smith from Washington State as they helped to show the Pac-12 out of existence, and it really does seem like a wonderful fit of institution and head coach. Smith comes off as a frank, casually humorous, genuine sort of person, and he was well-liked on the Palouse. There, he turned more than a few raw youngsters into good players during his tenure with the Cougars – just like Smith had done at San Francisco and Columbia before that. In describing his decision to take the Stanford job after five years as a rival, Smith became emotional as he described the resources which will be available to his son Bo, who is autistic, by Stanford’s world-renowned medical departments. Looking out over a coaching landscape of nakedly self-serving individuals, Smith sure seems like one of the good ones. 

His predecessor, Jerod Haase, was also described as a decent man. He couldn’t get the job done, though, despite always attracting plenty of talent to Palo Alto. Can Smith step in and succeed in the standings where others have not? 

It was only two years ago that Stanford brought in its first transfer as a basketball player, former Davidson veteran Michael Jones. Last year the Cardinal added a fifth-year graduate player for the second straight season with the addition of former Providence point guard Jared Bynum. This spring, Stanford’s approach to the transfer portal could be described as ‘willy-nilly’. In addition to what Smith hopes will be an under-the-radar success of a freshman class, the Cardinal have added five new players via the portal. 

With all of that action, it’s Stanford’s top returnee who will have the most to say about their success as a team. French pivot Maxime Raynaud enjoyed one of the best breakout seasons of any post player in America last season, and he is the star who will lead the Cardinal into the ACC. His progress from gangly and uncertain youngster to powerhouse post scorer has been steady, and if Raynaud’s next step can be a thorough refinement of the things he does well, he can become one of the best players in Stanford’s new league. 

“When we had (former Washington State center) Mouhamed Gueye, we did a lot of 5-out, and I foresee us doing a lot of that stuff with Maxime…What we’re inheriting with Maxime Raynaud is a really skillful center, who we’ll play through,” Smith told the Daily Cardinal this spring. Stanford’s new coach has utilized a variety of offensive approaches over the years to fit the individual skills of his teams, and will be making tweaks to feature Raynaud in particular. Smith envisions surrounding Raynaud with shooters and slick ball-movers whenever possible, and the star big man who decided to stick around ought to fit seamlessly into that plan of attack. 

A patient post with plenty of touch and a good overall feel on offense, Raynaud has learned to score in a variety of ways. He can operate with his back to the basket as a traditional post-up big, dribble and turn into leaners and hook shots around the lane, and Raynaud will drain elbow jumpers all evening if given space. He’s always been able to shoot, and with his evolution as a post scorer, Raynaud’s threat from the outside is becoming difficult to game-plan against. He splashed a career-high 22 triples last winter, and Raynaud is a 34.6% career shooter from the land of trey. The Parisian pivot is also a deft passer whether he’s kicking out from a double team near the basket or opening up room for a cutting teammate by pulling defenders out to the wing. It would be no surprise at all to see Smith pull some Princeton concepts out of the back of his playbook from Columbia and invert the Cardinal offense with Raynaud as a playmaker from above the free throw line. With his offensive prowess extending all over the halfcourt, Raynaud must now work to limit turnovers and defend at the highest level of his career. Quickness can still beat Raynaud, and he’ll have to keep a right hold on each possession with opposing defenses attacking him from all angles. Given his new coach’s attention to detail, though, and his own ascent so far, Raynaud has likely added one or two things to his repertoire in anticipation of his biggest year yet. 

Smith has crafted the Stanford lineup with Raynaud very much in mind, and one of the most productive players he’s added ought to fit nicely next to Raynaud up front. With enough size to slot in as an ACC power forward and more than the usual post skills at his command, Harvard transfer Chisom Okpara is going to be stepping into a big role for the Cardinal. 

“Chisom is a great addition to our program. He gives us a producer who will help complete our frontcourt,” Smith proclaimed upon Okpara’s signing. “He is not afraid of contact and can really help take some of the scoring load off of Maxime with his ability to find scoring opportunities inside, outside and at the foul line.”

Five Stats That Tell The Tale (with national ranks)

37.0% – Team 3FG Percentage (24th)

35.7% – Opponent 3FG Percentage (302nd)

53.6% – 2FG Percentage (52nd)

28.5 – Opponent FG Made Per Game (336th)

16.1 – Assists Per Game (25th)

With growing skill from all three scoring levels, Okpara showed flashes of stardom at Harvard. He’s powerful enough off the bounce to catch anywhere around the lane and drive for a bucket, and Okpara has begun to deploy some post moves when he likes a matchup. He can slash towards the goal after setting a screen with all sorts of alacrity, and Okpara can get up in order to throw down. He’s also becoming quite capable of hitting deep jumpers, and Okpara knocked down 27 triples at a 33.8% rate in his 26 games played a year ago. One of his most projectable skills is that Okpara knows how to get to the charity stripe. With his confidence in thundering through the paint and trying tough, occasionally acrobatic shots, Okpara led the Ivy League in free throw attempts and was second in makes a year ago. Both of Stanford’s bigs can protect the rim, and though neither is a particularly prodigious shot-blocker on their own, Okpara’s athleticism and ability to cover ground paired with Raynaud’s great reach should make both more effective together than they would be apart. 

To support the featured pieces up front, Smith has attracted a couple of up-and-coming guards who will get the chance to show their stuff. As a freshman last year, Derin Saran was one of UC Irvine’s best players as the Anteaters won a second straight Big West championship. He was courted by quite a few teams in the portal, but after playing behind a trio of veterans last year, Saran chose a chance to play big minutes on The Farm. He’s a big guard who thrives off the bounce, and Saran may have picked up a thing or two from all-conference point guard Pierre Crockrell, II, while he was with the Eaters. A confident ballhandler who makes decisions quickly and correctly, Saran looked like a natural operating out of ball screens for UIC, and he proved plenty capable of getting to the rim. That’s where the Turkish guard attempted 137 of the 236 shots he attempted as a rookie, per Bart Torvik, and Saran converted 57.7% of those tries. He’s got a solid jumper that will make the defense pay for leaving him open, and Saran should become more of a weapon from the perimeter this year. There’s a lot to like about Saran’s game, and Smith intends on exploring his potential this fall. 

After being stuck behind some of the most talented and oft-discussed guards in the country last year, former Trojan Oziyah Sellers has headed north to join the Cardinal. It was tough to get minutes behind Boogie Ellis, Isaiah Collier, Kobe Johnson, and Bronny James at Southern Cal last year, but Sellers still managed to have a career year in the minutes he was able to carve out. A lanky 6’5″ shooter with enough quickness and agility to create space, Sellers can get good looks even when the scouting report says to keep a hand in his face. Though he averaged just over 14 minutes per contest as a sophomore, Sellers sank 24 long balls at a 42.9% mark last season. After recruiting him since early in his tenure at Wazzu, Smith was excited to welcome Sellers aboard and would love to see him keep to that shooting rate as a junior. 

“Oziyah is someone I have known since he was in the eighth grade. I have been following his career, and I am excited to coach him so he can reach the heights that I know he is capable of,” Smith reflected upon Sellers joining the Cardinal. “During his time spent at USC, he displayed an ability to play all three perimeter positions offensively, and he has the talent, size and athleticism to guard any perimeter player.” How much Sellers ends up playing on the ball is yet to be determined, as Saran and others are more natural point guards. Still, wherever he is in the halfcourt, Sellers will be a threat to line one up and let fly, and his presence as a shooter should help to open the floor up for Raynaud inside. 

The point guard spot is largely going to played by Duke transfer Jaylen Blakes and returning junior Benny Gealer, though it remains to be seen who will get more run. A reserve for the Blue Devils who became known as a tough defender who could bother against some of the best guards in the country, Blakes will be Stanford’s most ACC-acquainted player right away. He’s a physically strong player who can guard most sorts of perimeter scorers, and Smith will be counting on Blakes to handle tough assignments and take them off of the front burner. 

“Defensively, Jaylen gives us a defender with a pit bull mentality,” Smith remarked upon signing Blakes. “He has the ability to guard the ball, which is vital to setting any defense.” He’s averaged just north of 11 minutes per contest the past two years for Duke, but if Blakes can provide a semblance of consistent offense, he should double that total. There’s nothing glaringly wrong with his game on that end, but Blakes doesn’t have much to hang his hat on as a scorer. He distributes well and can hit an open jumper, though, and Blakes will get the chance this fall to show that he’s evolved. 

A reserve on last year’s team after hardly playing at all as a freshman, Gealer will get his opportunity because he stepped up when the Cardinal needed him as a sophomore. After Bynum got hurt last year and things got a bit messy on The Farm, Gealer became a fixture in the lineup. A playmaker who showed that he can keep it calm even when things are fraying, Gealer rarely scored big, but he ran the Cardinal offense well. He handed out 73 assists against just 27 turnovers, and after the new year, Gealer was regularly playing 20+ minutes per game. If Gealer – who will wear #5 instead of #15 this fall – can keep that up while dropping in a few more buckets, he will reprise an important role. 

After a redshirt season and then played just five games in his second campaign (a head injury didn’t help), no one is entirely sure what Stanford will get from Jaylen Thompson. The former 4-star recent still has great size and high-end skill, though, and Thompson could be an ideal 6th man. At 6’8″, Thompson has shot the ball very well in the past, and he can look a whole lot like a matchup problem when sinking deep jumpers. If he can get on a roll early this year and build some confidence, Thompson could finally get to make an impact. The Cardinal will take all the shooting they can get this year, and Ryan Agarwal can shoot the rock. He’s barely played through two seasons, but Agarwal is a former 4-star recruit with good size on the outside. With so much change, Agarwal will get a chance to show his stuff to the new coaches.

There’s excitement for the debut of freshman wing Evan Stinson. Smith got see plenty of Stinson while he was a prep star in Cheney, WA, and though he has not been rated as a particularly elite national prospect, the 3-star rookie has already shown that he’s a good fit for what Stanford is looking to do this year. 

“Evan is a long, rangy wing who possesses the ability to pass, make tough, angular midrange shots, and long-range jump shots,” Smith observed this summer. “His length and decision making make him a valuable asset as a defender and rebounder as well.” If he can consistently pour in points as a freshman, Stinson will be valuable indeed. His natural creativity combined with the ability to play a couple of spots on the floor should allow Stinson to step straight into the rotation and help right away. 

Smith is also excited by a big man who added to develop behind Raynaud. Tallis Toure is a modern big with tremendous size, length, and a very fanctional face-up game for his age. 

“Tallis is an emerging talent with excellent length and size. He is a unique center with the ability to play in multiple spots offensively. He has shown the ability to make perimeter shots and throw passes,” Smith analyzed this summer. “He is a good shot-blocker who can provide rim protection right away, and he should be a great understudy for Maxime in his final season.”

Five Out-of-Conference Games to Keep an Eye on

N Grand Canyon – November 26

N Oregon – December 21

Acrisure Holiday Classic 2nd Game – Nov 27

@ Santa Clara – November 23

vs Merrimack – December 17

The Cardinal have also added an unconventional newcomer in former Virginia lacrosse star Cole Kastner. He grew up playing a few sports, and starred on the court before choosing lacrosse. On the field, he was twice named an All-American as a 6’7″, 215-pound defender. He grew up in Palo Alto, though, and his homecoming will allow Kaatner to live a dream and also help the new-look Cardinal. 

“It was always a dream of mine to be back in the Bay area and play college hoops,” Kastner explained his choice to return to the hardwood. “I just hope I can come in as a grad transfer, take some of the younger guys under my wing, show them how to be the best collegiate student athlete that you can be and hopefully give them the best look possible.” How much he plays or makes an on-court impact is an open question, but Kastner will be a solid, reliable presence to help stitch together a new team. 

There’s so much new and strange this year for Stanford that expectations are a bit of a blank canvas. The Cardinal have some surefire talent and a star to lean on, but how they will adapt to a new league and so many new faces will be an adventure. 

All seasons are, though, in all sorts of different ways. What is known is that Stanford has a great player to build around, shooters flanking him, and a coach who has done it all before – a few times over. The potential is there for the Cardinal to be quite good, and the potential is there for them to be fairly mediocre. If having the right people in place to move things forward counts for anything, Stanford will come out on the more pleasant end of that scale.