21-13; 8-10, Ninth in the Southeastern Conference
In their first season under new head coach Chris Jans last season, Mississippi State played incredible defense and made a run to the NCAA Tournament. They just couldn’t make enough shots to keep on advancing, though. So Jans added a bunch of guys who could shoot during the offseason – and one of them has proven to be exactly the sort of walking bucket that the Bulldogs needed.
Still strong defensively, Hail State hasn’t been quite as elite this year, but with five-time SEC Freshman of the Week scorer Josh Hubbard around this time, the Bulldogs have created other opportunities. Especially since star big man Tolu Smith, the team’s leading scorer last year, returned from an early-season foot injury to cement the post for Jans and give State a fully operational attack.
Hubbard has had some off-games, as freshmen will – but when he’s been on, he has absolutely scorched the nets. He’s scored 20+ points a dozen times this season, and splashed at least three triples in 21 different contests. After starting the year in reserve due to a host of veteran guards on the roster, Hubbard quickly proved that he needed to be on the floor for all the minutes he could handle. As Jans has leaned into his rookie’s skills, Hubbard has rewarded the coach: over State’s last six games, Hubbard has averaged 27.5 points on 62.1% true shooting, with 32 and 34-point performances tossed in.
With Smith back in the fold, State’s pick-and-roll offense has returned in earnest. He’s a traditional post scorer who is comfortable creating for himself and kicking out to shooters, and Smith is very smooth near the rim no matter the physicality thrown at him. Smith has terrific hands and feet, is coordinated and clever enough to take his time, and the more often he gets paint touches, the more effective State’s shooters are. Jans would really love to see some clutch foul shooting from his star big in the Tournament, though. Despite earning seven free throw attempts per game, Smith has been at about 60% (or under) in the pursuit of free points each season of his career.
One thing that State still does in dominant fashion is defend the three-point arc. With the size and length of quick, strong, experienced forwards Cameron Matthews and DJ Jeffries, the Bulldogs have every bit as much shot blocking on the wing as they do in the paint. Matthews, an SEC All-Defense pick each of the last two years, also enjoyed the best offensive season of his career. Though not a jump shooter, Matthews is cash money when allowed to get near the rim; he made 73.6% of his tries in close, per Bart Torvik. What’s more. he led the Bulldogs in assists this season. Not many players bring the combined physicality and ballhandling that Matthews offers on the wing, and he’s thrown down 40 often momentum-changing dunks. Jeffries brings similar skills, but fancies himself more of a shooter despite making just 25.8% of his triple tries this winter.
The quality experience in State’s backcourt comes largely from Dashawn Davis and Shakeel Moore. While neither is the volume shooter that Hubbard has proven to be, each has been efficient with their three-point shots this season and contributed quality defensive minutes. Davis is this team’s purest point guard, and though he took a backseat to Hubbard as a scorer this season, Davis has helped to oversee a significantly improved Bulldog offense. Moore has provided real value as a secondary scorer, kicking in 10 points a dozen times this year.
As much as their proven defensive reputation and star scorers bode well for State in the Big Dance, so too does their record in neutral-site games. The Bulldogs are 8-1 in such matchups this year: and in those games, they rank top five in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
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