2024 is here and there are all sorts of things which will require your attention as March approaches. Many of the biggest storylines of last year will continue towards their conclusions in March, while two months of conference play will reveal new plot lines, heroes, villains and drama we’ve barely glimpsed so far. A New Year is here, and college basketball is just beginning to start percolating in earnest. Here are some key teams, leagues, and players who will be holding our attention.
The Year of the Mountain West is upon us
One of the primary rising storylines of 2023, especially on the back end, has been the quality of basketball being played in and around the Rocky Mountains. We’ve had a few things to say about the league going back into late summer, and are very much looking forward to the chaos and quality which conference play should bring.
The MWC looks like a five-bid league as of New Year’s Day. San Diego State is coming off of the best year they’ve ever had – including an appearance in the national championship game – and still has a bunch of the best pieces from that crew. Jaedon LeDee has been fantastic, and the Aztecs’ experienced guards are money in the bank. Colorado State joins the Aztecs’ LeDee in boasting a genuine All-American candidate in Isaiah Stevens, and this season’s Rams are looking very much like the best team there’s been in Fort Collins. The unconventional frontcourt of Patrick Cartier and Joel Scott has been excellent, while the CSU guards have been smart and sound around stars Stevens and Nique Clifford. Not only has Colorado State earned a gaudy national ranking; they’ve got plenty of proven producers, play a tremendously efficient game, and can put up points in the blink of an eye. As if all that quality weren’t enough, Nevada has arguably had the most impressive non-conference schedule of any MWC team. Reno is home to one of the nation’s best backcourts, as Kenan Blackshear is a near-constant triple-double threat and Jarod Lucas is a top marksman. With a well-rounded team around them – including skilled young 4-man Nick Davidson – the Wolf Pack’s star duo is looking primed to lead a return journey to the Madness.
Meanwhile, Utah State has reloaded after Ryan Odom’s 26 wins and whole roster from last season vanished. In fact, the Aggies might actually be better this time around. Great Osobor has thrown his name into contention for Mountain West Player of the Year, and is playing an exceptionally complete game out of the post. Darius Brown II, Osobor’s once and current teammate and a key veteran whom head coach Danny Sprinkle was able to bring along from Montana State, has played the point wonderfully, and the Aggies have a multi-talented pair of rising guards in Ian Martinez and Mason Falslev. New Mexico may have fallen apart down the stretch last year, but the Lobos have reloaded and are looking to flip the script. They’re led by a barrage of young talent including MWC Rookie of the Year contender JT Toppin and future pro Donovan Dent, and UNM boasts a trio of highly proven guards to go along with defensive menace Nelly Junior Joseph in the post.
Boise State could find itself in the NCAA Tournament picture, as well; the Broncos have another strong, experienced team and no blemishes on their resumé. With St. John’s transfer O’Mar Stanley breaking out up front, the Broncos have balance to compliment returning stars Tyson Degenhart and Chibuzo Agbo. UNLV demolished Big East power Creighton a few weeks ago, and has the talent to be a problem – especially given the play of standout rookie point guard Dedan Thomas, Jr. Wyoming has improved behind a pair of exciting, shot-making guards in Akuel Kot and Sam Griffin. Even Air Force, Fresno State and San José State, though not always power teams in the league, have strong, experienced lineups and can genuinely play. Call ’em what you will, but there’s nothing ‘mid’ about the Mountain West these days. It’s a league packed with powerful teams all clamoring for their next chance to knock off a big name from a traditional major conference. Keep an eye on the schedule and start getting naps in where you can: the hoops they’re going to be playing late-night out West will be must-watch action all winter long.
Can Clemson avoid Clemsoning? And other ACC thoughts
If you’ve been hoping for a Clemson breakthrough over the past decade-plus, you’ve seen some bitter disappointment. The Tigers have been a good team more often than not under long-tenured head coach Brad Brownell. It’s just…they’ve rarely been much more than good. The Tigers have only been to three out of the 12 NCAA Tournaments which Brownell has been around for, and there have been as many – or more – near-misses as genuine successes. Coming into this season, the Tigers had a strong returning core, and their staff assertively built around it through the transfer portal this summer. The result had been an 11-1 start, festooned with victories over such quality opponents as UAB, Pittsburgh, Boise State, South Carolina, and Alabama. Clemson traveled to ACC foe and back-to-back Elite Eight participant Miami (FL) on Wednesday night, though, and some questions immediately followed. Playing without their leading scorer, the Hurricanes beat Clemson 95-82, shooting 53.0% on the night and making those in purple and orange wonder if this team will be different. On Saturday, they get another test: the top-ten-ranked Tar Heels are coming to town. The Tigers’ talent and experience is undeniable; PJ Hall is a star inside-out scorer up front, while Joseph Girard II can score from anywhere on the halfcourt. Chase Hunter is a smart, savvy playmaker who slots in wonderfully as a support scorer, and the rising trio of Ian Schieffelin, Chauncey Wiggins, and RJ Godfrey can just about do it all from the forward spots. For this team, it’s all about fortitude and health – and the chemistry required to play their best at the right moments. If these Tigers can hold together and finish ACC play strong, they surely will have second-weekend potential.
Elsewhere in the league, Wake Forest is rising while Virginia is trying to find consistency, and Miami would love to affirm their place as an ACC power with a third-straight statement season. The Demon Deacons have been an exciting group all year, with star guards Cameron Hildreth, Hunter Sallis, and Boopie Miller scoring and distributing all over the floor. Sallis has shed his stalled-recruit label since coming to Winston-Salem, while Miller is all the way back from a foot injury which wiped out the 2021-22 MAC Rookie of the Year’s sophomore season. Now that big man Efton Reid III has been cleared to take the floor, he has added a presence defensively and on the boards which allows slick scoring big Andrew Carr to be his best self, as well. Especially since Reid’s arrival, Wake is forcing opponents into tough shots and guarding effectively despite the quick pace at which head coach Steve Forbes likes to see his team play. The Demon Deacons rank 10th nationally in opponent assists per FG made, and when somebody does get a clean look, the Deacs are blocking more than five shots per contest over the past few weeks. Wake has ripped off eight wins in a row, and has a big chance to affirm their place near the top of the league on Saturday, when they host Miami.
As preseason favorites North Carolina and Duke build their respective resumés upon the journey to reaching their ultimate, talent-rich potential, the Hoos have been stuck in a Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde situation of solid wins offset by barely-competitive losses. We all know by now that Virginia loves to keep possessions low and play exceptional defense, and the Cavaliers occasionally struggle to score themselves. This season, Tony Bennett’s team has struggled mightily to get buckets, and an ankle injury to proven scorer Dante Harris has done nothing to help. The Hoos have only lost three games, but in those defeats, Virginia has averaged less than 50 points: and they have been beaten by more than 20 points each time. Reece Beekman is a leader and fantastic all-around player, while Ryan Dunn is a defensive monster and sophomore sniper Isaac McKneely has proven to be a legitimate deep threat. It’s looking more and more like Virginia will have to keep grinding out games, and they must hope that the return of Harris and/or some better shooting from transfer guard Andrew Rohde can add some scoring punch to help avoid the doldrums. Virginia has the DNA and defense to turn things around, and conference play will provide opportunities, if they are ready to cash them in.
How many bids will the top ‘mid-major’ leagues earn?
Each year, more and more talented teams who can objectively play with anyone emerge from outside of the traditional power conferences, and it’s becoming harder to deny them their place at the Big Dance. Still, it’s not easy to earn such an invitation, and in leagues such as the Atlantic 10, Missouri Valley, and West Coast Conference, it’s already being wondered how many bids will be available outside of each league’s tournament champion.
There are some obvious contenders for each league’s title. It’s hard to imagine a reality in which Gonzaga doesn’t play in the NCAA Tournament, especially during Spokane legend Anton Watson’s final year. Will it come via a conference title, though? The Bulldogs, as ever, played a tough non-conference slate, but didn’t haymaker the other top programs they’ve seen as we have come to expect. If the Zags’ thin but star-studded backcourt can hold up, though, Gonzaga looks as much like a WCC contender as ever. San Francisco is off to a strong start behind do-it-all big man Jonathan Mogbo, a strong group of guards, and some good, versatile forwards. We touched upon the Dons in our look back at 2023, and see them as a genuine contender for the league crown as well. Santa Clara has got another very talented bunch, and the Broncos are getting big breakout years from Adama-Alpha Bal and Carlos Marshall. They’ve lost a string of close games against good teams, but it wouldn’t be a big surprise to see Herb Sendek’s team flip that script and pull off some big wins in league play. And before anyone forgets the Gaels, it was just over a month ago that many people across college basketball assumed that Saint Mary’s was all but a lock for an at-large bid and a borderline Top 25 team. They have stumbled badly at times, though, and must find offensive consistency. The Gaels are an elite rebounding team and defend tenaciously; if star scorer Aidan Mahaney can rediscover his shooting stroke, SMC could get rolling quickly. There is also a new potential problem for the league’s more experienced teams: a rising San Diego side. Veteran coach Steve Lavin has assembled an intriguing mix of veteran scorers and big, long, talented youngsters which has already guided the Toreros to 10 wins out of conference. Over the past decade-plus, the WCC has been just as likely to land three teams in the Big Dance as it’s been that the league’s champion is its lone representative. Still, with Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s – the league’s two biggest names – stumbling in non-conference play, things are a bit dicier than usual. The league’s top few teams will have to fight to avoid further wobbles, but as ever, there is quality atop the WCC which should reveal itself during March Madness.
The Valley runs deep, they say, and this year it’s as true as ever. The Missouri Valley is always a gauntlet where contenders take turns beating up on one another, and road wins are like cool water in the desert. Such is the competitiveness that, over the last six NCAA Tournaments which have been played, the MVC has only snagged multiple bids once. This season, though, two teams have taken different paths to at-large contention. They’ll each have to watch out for the talented squads around them, though.
Drake is not a newcomer to contention: they’ve finished first or second in the league in four of the five seasons since Darian DeVries took over as head coach. The beat goes on into 2024, as the Bulldogs are off to a 12-2 start, with a 3-0 mark in league play. Led by All-American candidate Tucker DeVries, Drake has quickly retooled a roster which lost 354 combined games started from last year’s Valley championship squad. If Atin Wright and Kevin Overton can continue to provide secondary scoring, Darnell Brodie has proven that he will hold down the post. Drake’s young guards, including Overton, Conor Enright, and Colby Garland, are smart and efficient players of the sort who help good teams to be even better in tight spots. With a dominant win over Nevada and a solid overall resumé, the Bulldogs are in good shape all the way around. Drake is going to get a tremendous challenge for this year’s league crown, though, from Indiana State. The Sycamores are one of the nation’s highest-scoring, smoothest-passing, sharpshootin’est outfits. After announcing their arrival with 23 victories and a run to the semifinals of Arch Madness last year, head coach Josh Schertz has an even more impressive bunch that’s also sitting on 12-2 & 3-0 to start the season. ISU has serious star power in marksman Isaiah Swope, point-center Robbie Avila, scoring wing Ryan Conwell, and high-energy forward Jayson Kent. The Sycamores don’t just have Avila, either: Swope and fellow veterans Xavier Bledson and Julian Larry are all quality passers who keep ISU’s shooters well-fed with great opportunities. The biggest thing the Sycamores need is a Quad 1 victory in the NET rankings to solidify their at-large case. We’ve written a considerable bit about both teams, and see each of them as NCAA Tournament participants. They will be challenged, though, by a couple of rising crews – including one which features one of the nation’s leading scorers. Southern Illinois has seen an incredible star-making performance from Xavier Johnson so far, and he’s got the Salukis looking like a strong third squad in the Valley. A terrific playmaker as well as a top scoring threat, Johnson plays a complete game and makes his already-talented teammates better. The Salukis have a couple of solid young bigs in Clarence Rupert and Scottie Ebube, and clever, experienced guys like Troy D’Amico and sharpshooter Trent Brown. Belmont is also dangerous, with a trio of young stars who could lead the Bruins to some big wins. Cade Tyson, Malik Dia and Ja’Kobi Gillespie give Nashville’s MVC squad the type of high-end potential that some other schools just don’t have.
Dayton is looking very strong as the #1 team in the Atlantic 10, but the conference has further quality beyond the Flyers, and its teams are out to prove it. You see, last year was the first time since the 2004-05 season that the A-10 didn’t get more than one team into the Big Dance, and plenty of people are still understandably annoyed by that fact.
St. Bonaventure, a couple of years removed from one of head coach Mark Schmidt’s best veteran squads, has started off strong with a revamped rotation. For years, Schmidt has ridden his starting five as hard as just about any coach, but this year the Bonnies are showing their depth. Mika Adams-Woods has played the best year of his career after transferring in from Cincinnati, while last year’s breakout big man, Chad Venning, has continued to provide reliable offense out of the post and rim protection on the other end. Adams-Woods and fellow newcomer Charles Pride have balanced out the Bonnies’ backcourt after Daryl Banks III was run nearly ragged last winter. There are nine members of the Bona rotation averaging 13 or more minutes per game, and just two guys are playing as many as 30 per contest – all but unheard-of for a Schmidt team. After debuting with a convincing road victory over VCU to open conference play, St. Bonaventure is getting set to plant their flag as a true challenger. George Mason isn’t far behind. Outside of getting beat up on Rocky Top, the Patriots have enjoyed a strong start to their first year under former GMU star and now head coach Tony Skinn. Relying on the transfer portal to restock a roster which saw three key pieces follow the outgoing Kim English to Providence, Skinn has helped some talented players to become the best version of themselves. Keyshawn Hall and Amari Kelly have combined to give George Mason a dangerous pair with high major size and athleticism up front, with Hall starting to look like a contender for some serious league accolades. Darius Maddox has found his groove after arriving from Virginia Tech, while Ronald Polite III – a Patriot his whole career – has established himself as one of the league’s better point guards. Recently, GMU traveled to Uptown, New Orleans and beat a good Tulane team, and the Patriots opened A-10 play with a strong 77-62 performance at La Salle: more check marks on a growing resumé. St. Joseph’s, Duquesne, and UMass have also shown some nice things early in the year; and George Washington had been on a roll until their triple-overtime defeat at the hands of Fordham on Wednesday day night. Just goes to show that league play can make or break a team’s fortunes, and these conference contenders are hoping to avoid the familiar stumbling blocks who will seek to stop them from achieving their biggest goals.
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