Last Year: 25-10;
Head Coach: Dennis Gates (Second Year)
Projected Starting Lineup
| G Nick Honor – 5’10”, 200 – Senior (5th) |
| G Caleb Grill – 6’3″, 215 – Senior (5th) |
| W John Tonje – 6’6″, 215 – Senior (5th) |
| F Noah Carter – 6’6″, 235 – Senior (5th) |
| C Connor Vanover – 7’5″, 230 – Senior (5th) |
Projected Starters’ 2022-23 Stats
Nick Honor: 7.9 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 2.9 apg, 1.5 spg – 39.9% 3FG
Caleb Grill: 9.5 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 1.4 apg, 1.2 spg – 36.8% 3FG @ Iowa State
John Tonje: 14.6 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.3 apg, 0.8 spg – 38.9% 3FG @ Colorado State
Noah Carter: 9.6 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 1.8 apg, 0.5 spg – 49.4% FG
Connor Vanover: 12.7 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 0.8 apg, 3.2 bpg – 32.4% 3FG @ Oral Roberts
Experienced Reserves
| G Sean East – 6’3″, 180 – Senior (5th) |
| W Tamar Bates – 6’5″, 195 – Junior |
| F Aidan Shaw – 6’8″, 205 – Sophomore |
| W Kaleb Brown – 6’7″, 245 – Junior |
| W Curt Lewis – 6’5″, 215 – Junior |
| F Jesus Carralero-Martin – 6’7″, 225 – Senior |
Experienced Reserves’ 2022-23 Stats
Sean East: 7.3 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 2.5 apg, 1.3 spg – 44.4% FG
Tamar Bates: 6.1 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 1.1 apg, 0.5 spg – 37.4% 3FG @ Indiana
Aidan Shaw: 2.7 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 0.3 spg, 0.3 bpg – 56.3% FG
Kaleb Brown: 0.8 ppg, 0.4 rpg, 0.5 apg, 0.5 spg, 44.4% FG
Curt Lewis: 14.3 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 3.8 apg, 2.3 spg – 48.3% 3FG @ John A. Logan College
Jesús Carralero-Martin: 9.3 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 3.9 apg, 1.2 spg – 46.5% FG @ Campbell
Freshmen
| F Trent Pierce – 6’10”, 210 – Freshman |
| F/C Jordan Butler – 7’0″, 230 – Freshman |
| G Anthony Robinson II – 6’2″, 175 – Freshman |
The Missouri Tigers and their new head coach gave quite an account of themselves to the Southeastern Conference last year, and they sure seemed to have a good time doing so. Mizzou claimed 25 victories, finished the year ranked in the AP Poll despite being predicted to finish right around the bottom of the league, and won a game in the NCAA Tournament for the first time in a decade.
The Tigers, under new coach Dennis Gates, played fun, fast basketball. Even as they got consistently worked over on the glass, they truly shared the rock, ranking top 25 in the nation in assists per game despite no individual player averaging as many as three helpers in each contest. Meanwhile, Mizzou was committing absolute larceny on their foes, to the tune of second-most total steals of any program in America. And when they had their opponent on the ropes, the cats from Columbia finished ’em off with back-breaking triples; Mizzou hit the 23rd-most shots from distance per game of any team in America.
It was a terrific season. Everybody down South was talking about it.
So Mizzou can do it again, right?
When they had their opponents on the ropes, the cats from Columbia finished ’em off with back-breaking triples
Well, star transfers Trey Gomillion and D’Moi Hodge – who followed Gates from his previous job at Cleveland State to help Gates establish his culture at Mizzou – have exhausted their eligibility, as has fellow Horizon League veteran DeAndre Gholston. Additionally, leading scorer and breakout star Kobe Brown has departed for the professional ranks. And the local guy who Mizzou fans had been waiting what felt like a decade to see as their star isn’t going to play for their team any more. So…
There isn’t much time or space, to say nothing of patience, for long rebuilds in the SEC. Especially in just your second year. So, Gates has worked diligently to restock his roster on the fly, and now Mizzou is ready for their second year in the spotlight. Or at least, as ready as a top young coach can make them.
Without the top three players from last year’s team, former Northern Iowa star Noah Carter returns as the Tigers’ most proven scorer. And Carter really isn’t a bad place to start, because he’s done nothing but improve steadily as a college player. Carter is a talented offensive player, a hybrid forward who doesn’t have tremendous size, but makes up for it with skill, versatility, contagious effort and energy. UNI has always run a fairly perimeter-oriented offense under longtime coach Ben Jacobson, and it was in that system that Carter made his name. When Gates brought Carter to Columbia, those perimeter skills combined with the shooting talents of Kobe Brown, Hodge and point guard Nick Honor to give the Tigers one of the best-spaced and toughest-to-guard lineups in the league. Now, Carter will be asked to expand his game and do more around the basket. Working in his favor is that Carter was excellent in the paint on offense last season. He shot 66% overall on 2FG attempts, per Bart Torvik, but on attempts at the rim, Carter made 75% of his shots, with 15 dunks. Some of that was down to Mizzou’s terrific spacing, some of it was down to defenses focusing on the bigger stars, but a lot of it comes down to Carter; in his final season at UNI, Carter was at 68%, and he’s a 70% shooter for his career around the rim. With Carter’s outside shooting combined with his talent for outmuscling smaller players and pirouetting nimbly around bigger, slower ones, he has all the makings of a go-to scorer. Now, Carter has to prove that he can be that guy. Adding more consistency to his jumper inside the arc or, more ideally, developing a go-to move to score over bigger defenders in the paint would be a great start.
The point guard tandem of Nick Honor and Sean East III returns to run the show. Each is using his final year of eligibility with his third team, and Gates can rely upon them for steady ballhandling, playmaking, and, in the person of Honor, a solid deep threat. Did you know that ‘point guard’ can be spelled with two C’s? Honor spells it that way; the veteran guard may lack height, but he’s solidly built and strong. He played the most minutes of any Tiger last season, pilfered the opposition 54 times, and Honor shot a career-best 40% from downtown along the way. Honor has canned 202 triples in his career so far, and offers a heady, steady presence at both ends of the court. While some point guards need to have the ball and pull defenders towards them on the way to the rim in order to create opportunities for their teammates, Honor is more likely to bring the ball across halfcourt, drop off a crisp pass into the paint in order to get the offense rolling, dip around a screen or two and pop out again on the wing. Once there, he’s a lethal catch-and-shoot threat, and Honor is terrific at shot-faking the defense into giving one of his buddies an even better opportunity. And while he can be overwhelmed by big guards, Honor is happy to go toe to toe with anyone he’s asked to guard. Honor isn’t a player who loves to drive the ball; he’s a great shooter and distributor, and he’s savvy enough to lean into what he does best.
That’s where East comes in, and there he goes. East is the spice mixture that goes with Honor’s meat and potatoes, a hard-charging, drive-oriented playmaker who does his best work off the bounce and among the trees. While he has never had much of an outside focus (he made a career-low 15 triples at just 22% last year), East was also able to focus on his best attributes last season. East shot 55% on 2FG’s, and hitting 66% of his shots right around the rim, per Bart Torvik; and he cashed in a career-high 84% of the foul shots he earned with all of those aggressive takes to the cup. While East is usually looking to create his own shot on his cruises through the lane, he’s perfectly willing and able to set up a buddy who has a better look, and occasionally East drove and then kicked to Honor when they were on the court together. East keeps up his breakneck pace defensively, and will poach a pass while he’s not pressing his man in hopes of causing a turnover. When Gates has both Honor and East in the game at the same time, his pressure defense is at its most effective. While the point guards can be overwhelmed by big guards and wings on occasion, they tend to give just as good as they get in the end.
After starring for Rock Bridge High School in Columbia, Tigers fans continued to watch the career of high-scoring wing Isiaih Mosley with great interest. He became a star for Missouri State, averaged better than 20 points per game across his sophomore and junior seasons while being twice named to the All-Missouri Valley first team, and then, finally, came home to play for Missouri and Gates. Only, due to ongoing off-court matters, Mosley played just 14 games last year. And, after attempting to get ready for this season, Mosley instead has decided to focus on a professional career rather than continuing as a Tiger. While Mizzou fans are hoping all the best things for their star-that-never-was, his absence leaves yet another experienced role to be filled heading into this winter.
Luckily, Gates had gone out and snagged former Colorado State wing John Tonje to occupy, he hopes, a prime scoring role for the Tigers. During his four seasons in Fort Collins, Tonje developed from a versatile and athletic role player into a dangerous shooter and efficient primary scorer. Not just a shooter, Tonje can score on the block as well; he’s made 65% of his shots near the rim the past two years, and will bully a smaller defender if he gets the chance. While Tonje drives into a pull-up jumper at least as often as he drives to finish at the rim, he’s proven that can get tough buckets in traffic also, and he’s an 81% career shooter at the foul stripe. An excellent spot-up shooter, Tonje should also see open opportunities to let fly off of Mizzou’s fast-paced Princeton style ball movement. “One of the most experienced transfers in the nation,” is what Gates called Tonje when he signed on in Columbia. “John is a proven winner during his college career. He brings a veteran leadership to our locker room and…He adds size to our perimeter and is a three-level scorer that will make an immediate impact on our success.” With a need for someone to go a-bucket-gettin’, Tonje seems to have arrived at a great crossroads of personal improvement and prime opportunity.
Another player hoping to have arrived at that crossroads is Connor Vanover, one of the tallest players in the nation. Vanover is joining his second SEC program in this, his extra ‘Covid Year’, and his fourth Division I program overall. After a promising freshman season at Cal, Vanover transferred to Arkansas for a couple of up-and-down years, before becoming his best-yet-self last season with Oral Roberts. Now, Vanover is hoping to make a successful return to the SEC, both for himself personally and in the win-loss column. Vanover’s strengths and limitations have been well-documented. “Absolutely love Connor’s game. He’s a terror defensively…he’s a really skilled passer, really skilled player,” North Dakota coach Paul Sather has said of Vanover. At his best, Vanover is a mobile rim protector who can cash in lots of looks near the hoop, and has proven that he must be guarded out past the three point arc.
Vanover can be exposed, though, by quicker and more aggressive players taking him off the bounce, and he’s simply not a classic, back-to-the-basket big who will out-muscle other post players for many buckets or loose balls. At his worst, there have been times when Vanover has looked like more of a freshman project than a veteran of four high major seasons. As a pick-and-pop big and face-up shooter, Vanover has value, and last season he used his length and awareness so well that Vanover was named the Summit League’s Defensive Player of the Year. “With Connor, we’ve addressed a potential area of improvement in our rebounding and rim protection,” Gates reflected upon Vanover’s signing. “He also allows us to maintain our style of play with his ability to shoot the ball and play a quick-paced five-out system. Connor is an experienced winner at the collegiate level.” Gates has seen the ways that other coaches have both gotten the most out of Vanover’s skills and also, not. If Vanover plays to his strengths, and manages to continue his improvement – especially on the glass – he can be an effective part of Mizzou’s rotation.
| Five Stats Which Tell The Tale (with national ranks) |
| 55.0% – Team Effective FG Percentage (17th) |
| 52.3% – Opponent Effective FG Percentage (278th) |
| 59.8 – FG Attempts Per Game (67th) |
| 44.7% Team Rebounding Rate (359th) |
| 1.431 – Team Assists Per Turnover (18th) |
Caleb Grill has arrived at a different fork in the road, and has set out to make this season count as a regenerative moment in his life. “Caleb is a veteran winner who has big-game experience during his college career,” Gates said upon welcoming Grill to Columbia. “His production speaks for itself and his perimeter scoring will elevate our offense.” The past year-plus has been a turbulent time for the well-traveled marksman. There’s been a back injury, a difficult resulting recovery, the death of a close friend, and, as Grill detailed to Calum McAndrew for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, “I probably shouldn’t have come back yet. But I rushed it back.” Grill’s return to the court met with more frustration, including some in-game situations. He got involved in a scrum after an elbow was thrown against West Virginia, and was thrown out of a game against Oklahoma State after getting into it with Cowboys guard Caleb Asberry. Eventually, Grill said something behind closed doors which led to Cyclones coach TJ Otzelberger dismissing Grill from the program. “I wasn’t obeying the policy. … I should have just stuck my head down. Keep trusting the process, keep working, keep grinding, but, you know, that’s where mentally I couldn’t do it,” Grill explained, detailing his struggle with mental health. This season, he’s looking to get right on and off the court, and turn in a big season. Grill is a dangerous outside threat, and owns 178 triples over his four years. He’s started 53 career games and averaged 29 minutes played over his last three campaigns. Grill gives tremendous effort whenever he’s on the floor – and will be bringing his best this fall. “It’s just been so long since I’ve been on the court and around coaches and teammates, and I’m just really excited to be back around that.”
Former Indiana wing Tamar Bates may be the great sleeping giant on this roster, and he will have a chance to emerge as a star by playing the way Gates wants to play. “Coach Gates, I’d heard nothing but good things about him and after talking to him and getting to know him more I can see why everybody raves about him and his character,” Bates told 247 Sports this spring. “The way that coach Gates wants to play fits my game. They want to play fast paced, up and down, shoot a lot of threes and getting up into guys and defending.” Bates trusts his new coach to put him in positions to succeed, and he’s excited to show off the full range of skills which once had some services rating Bates as a Top 25 prospect. Gates, for his part, thinks that Bates made a great choice in coming back home. “From just down the street in Kansas City, Tamar has a winning DNA and is a player that will flourish in our system. He has great length and can really shoot the ball from deep. What makes him special, though, is how much of a vocal leader he is on the court and his strong basketball IQ.” A quick and shifty lefty who can hit from the outside or explode towards the lane, Bates has tremendous untapped scoring potential. He can finish creatively at the rim and has both the athleticism and moxie to take hits, adjust, and score through the contact. While he didn’t quite hit 30% of his deep heaves as a freshman, Bates improved last season, ripping off 37 triples at a 37.4% clip – and he cashed in 92.6% of his free throw tries, as well. He wasn’t counted on as a primary scorer for the veteran Hoosiers, but Bates ended up earning an average of more than 20 minutes last season. Given his improving percentages, experience and low (15.7%) usage rate thus far, it’s possible that Bates is about to absolutely go off in his new digs. If so, Mizzou will have one of the deeper backcourts in the SEC.
Aidan Shaw and Kaleb Brown both played for the Tigers last year, but are looking for bigger roles this time around. A long, bouncy talent up front who arrived at Mizzou as a ballyhooed 4-star prospect, Shaw has spent the summer getting stronger in anticipation of doing more effective work on the boards and throwing down even more vicious dunks as a sophomore. The lanky forward can be very tough to contain physically, and as he understands assignments better and plats more effectively without fouling, Shaw could level up quickly. Shaw can get up with the best of them, and his unteachable fluidity and vertical will keep him a top lob threat as he sands down the edges of his ballhandling and shooting. The raw talent is there, though, to convince Gates that Shaw is on the verge of becoming a star. “What I am excited about is that his disposition, his mindset remain consistent,” Gates told the Columbia Daily Tribune late last year. “It has yielded what I think it should yield. “I’m excited about his future…There’s no doubt about it, Aidan Shaw is going to go down as one of the all-time great players at Mizzou.” Kaleb Brown is plenty big and strong, and the younger brother of Kobe Brown has a wide array of skills at his disposal. It’s just that he hasn’t consistently gotten onto the court to show them off. Brown can pass, shoot, handle and post up smaller players, and is really hoping to earn a role all his own after exploring the Portal and returning to the Tigers.
An intriguing newcomer is Jésus Carralero-Martin, a talented offensive player who spent his past four seasons at Campbell. Though his last year ended after just five games due to a wrist injury, Carralero-Martin is a Spanish forward who can score, rebound, and especially pass the ball. He’s a composed and heady player in the halfcourt who can fit with lots of other players to maximize Mizzou’s ball movement. During his last full season, Carralero-Martin ranked second in the Big South in assist rate (32.2%), and handed out 3.9 setups per contest – good for fourth in the league. Though he can make outside jumpers, Carralero-Martin hasn’t consistently stretched defenses as a scorer, shooting just 26.7% from the land of trey across his 78 games at Campbell. Carralero-Martin isn’t terribly athletic, but he relies upon skill and smarts anyway; though on the defensive end, he can run into tough matchups when matched against too much speed, size or strength. Like Vanover, Carralero-Martin has useful abilities – it is up to Gates to find out how they can best benefit the Tigers.
| Five Out-of-Conference Games to Keep an Eye on |
| @ Kansas – December 9 |
| vs Memphis – November 10 |
| N – Illinois – December 22 |
| N – Seton Hall – December 17 |
| @ Pitt – November 28 |
Joining the more experienced bigs will be Missouri’s top two freshmen recruits this year. Trent Pierce is more of a combo forward who has risen steadily up the recruiting rankings over the past 12 months. “The confidence he’s gaining as he enters the home stretch of his high school career should prove to be invaluable for him when he arrives in Columbia to play for Dennis Gates and the Tigers,” said Eric Bossi for 247 Sports earlier this year. Pierce can really shoot the ball, and should provide a contrast to more paint-oriented forward like Shaw. Rated as highly as a Top 100 prospect by 247, Pierce also has the athleticism and nimble feet to play on the perimeter. He will reject outside shot attempts well into the stands, and Pierce has great overall defensive potential. if he proves that he can hang with quick SEC wings at his commanding height, Pierce could present the Tigers with a great new two-way piece. Butler may not play as much right away, as he is seven feet tall and quite thin. Looking ahead, though, Butler is seven feet tall, and has already shown that he can fill it up from the perimeter. As he gains experience, Butler projects as a modern pivot who can protect the rim and then pull defenders away from the lane with his face-up game. Point guard Anthony Robinson III is a tall and rangy playmaker from Florida who should pick up some nice experience this winter behind his experienced counterparts. A slick passer who is dynamic off the bounce, Robinson can keep an offense organized and get his guys into good looks. He’s not an amazing shooter yet, but has the size and quickness to be an impact defender while his deep ball catches up.
Former Eastern Kentucky and JuCo wing Curt Lewis has also joined Mizzou’s incoming group of rotation pieces, and brings the experience to make an immediate impact. The Kentucky native spent three years with the Colonels; one was a redshirt season, and then Lewis started 43 games over the next two years, averaging 10.4 points in the process. Lewis has the size and look of an SEC wing, and brings real strength and explosiveness slashing in from the perimeter. Gates has called Lewis the nation’s best incoming junior college player, and says “An elite shot maker on the perimeter, Curt is coming off a highly-successful season where he led his junior college to its first national championship.” Lewis wasn’t a great shooter while at EKU, but hit a blistering 48.3% on his 70 made triples last season. He can be undisciplined, but has major defensive potential and can change the game as a playmaker on that end. Lewis averaged 2.3 steals and better than a block per game last year, and knows how to turn live balls into rim-rattling, momentum-changing dunks.
According to Ken Pomeroy, Missouri was the tenth-luckiest team in the country last year, and now the Tigers’ deck has been significantly shuffled. Can Gates get his second team to play better defense, perform as well in close games, and grind out 20+ victories again?
“I’m still trying to lead the country in three-point shooting,” Gates said. “I’m still trying to lead the country in positive assist-to-turnover ratio… I still want to put pressure offensively and defensively,” Gates has told the Columbia Daily Tribune. The Tigers are going to be exciting, and they’re going to be as abrasive as it takes to disrupt what the other teams would like to do. If a couple of new stars can step forward, Gates has secured the depth to keep things flowing.
Post play will remain a question mark, and somehow, the Tigers must do a better job on the boards. Mizzou is built to succeed despite not having a young Shaqtus growing in the paint, though. If Grill, Honor and Bates can handle the bulk of the outside production efficiency, the Tigers will have something familiar to rely upon offensively. It’s hard to change so much and stay just as good, but Gates has proven already that he and his squad are game to give it a try.
Leave a Reply